JPMorgan Cites Shipping Bottleneck as Oil Prices Stay High

Despite ample global oil supplies, prices continue to rise. JPMorgan attributes the issue to a maritime bottleneck: insufficient tanker capacity to transport the crude.

In a note dated October 9, JPMorgan cautioned that a shipping constraint is elevating transportation expenses, while producers in the Middle East boost their export volumes.

September saw oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz hit 12 million barrels daily, compared with 7.5 million in July and August. Despite that increase, prices stayed elevated.

Remember when JP Morgan came out 2 weeks ago claiming Hormuz flows were near pre-war highs?

Well, they have a new oil report and it's not looking good.

"October is beginning to look like April".

Why?

The cost of shipping crude is skyrocketing and it's not changing soon.

— Nic (@puckrin) October 11, 2026

Global Oil Tanker Capacity Stretched Thin

JPMorgan reported that as of September, 766 out of 923 supertankers globally were already deployed. An additional 124 Iranian tankers remain largely off limits to mainstream shipping due to US sanctions.

The remaining tankers are subject to extended voyages, and transferring crude between ships can require as long as 10 days.

As a result, transporting Middle Eastern oil now demands 35 additional supertankers compared with the 2025 average, not counting Iranian vessels.

“In April, the problem was a shortage of crude. In October, it is the cost of moving it,” JPMorgan analysts Natasha Kaneva, Lyuba Savinova, and Artem Fakhretdinov wrote.

Supertanker Hire Rate Hits $1.16 Million Per Day

The capacity crunch is already affecting freight rates.

On October 7, a tanker bound for South Korea was chartered at a rate of $1.162 million daily, as reported by Seatrade.

Brent crude was trading around $102.77 on October 9, with US crude at roughly $93.13.

Rising transport expenses are also pressuring refiners. JPMorgan cautioned that European refining margins are becoming negative, which could lead some plants to cut output.

Will Extra Oil Supply Reduce Prices?

Earlier in October, G7 countries committed to releasing 100 million barrels from strategic reserves.

President Donald Trump also asserted that the Strait of Hormuz no longer influences gasoline prices.

But JPMorgan's analysis poses a larger question: what occurs when governments inject more oil than available tanker capacity can move efficiently?

Shipping capacity is growing in significance for investors. Tanker-related investments have already garnered attention during the disruption.

Unless transport expenses decline, increased crude supply might provide only modest relief for buyers.