Macro and geopolitical risks cloud Solana's outlook; what comes next?

Together with the wider cryptocurrency market, Solana has seen pressure over the last two weeks, with worsening macroeconomic conditions and higher oil prices dampening risk appetite.

From a fundamental standpoint, the Alpenglow upgrade, due on October 21, may serve as a major catalyst. The consensus upgrade is designed to shorten transaction finality, which would boost Solana's performance for apps that need quicker settlement.

When it comes to macro, US inflation came in above expectations, yet Fed rate-hike expectations have shifted only modestly, and the mildly dovish repricing further along the curve points to investors possibly beginning to worry more about the growth picture.

In the coming weeks, the Flash PMIs, the FOMC, US-Iran talks and the US midterm elections stand out as important events. Should economic indicators begin signaling weakening conditions, the market may become progressively more anxious about growth.

That would be a drag on risk appetite and could put additional pressure on Solana and cryptocurrencies broadly. The picture would only improve drastically if the US-Iran war came to an end, since that would instantly boost growth expectations and market sentiment.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY TIMEFRAME

Looking at the daily chart, Solana is moving toward the important support zone near 97.00. Should it reach that area, buyers are likely to step in, with risk capped below the support, to aim for a rally toward 148.00. Sellers, meanwhile, will be watching for a downside break so they can add to bearish positions with the major upward trendline as the next target.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, a descending trendline is shaping the bearish momentum. Sellers are likely to use that line as their entry area, with risk placed above it, in an effort to press on toward the 97.00 support. Buyers, for their part, will be waiting for a breakout to carry the rebound toward 113.00.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 1-hour chart shows the latest swing low near 104.50, which could offer minor support. Buyers may step in at that point, with risk set below the level, in hopes of a move above the trendline. Sellers, in contrast, will be looking for a downside break to build on bearish positions targeting the 97.00 support.