Micron could nearly triple as D.A. Davidson raises target to $3,000

The valuation debate around memory stocks intensifies with a target so far above the consensus: if investors embrace the idea that AI has disrupted the historic cycle, multiples throughout the industry could rise. On the other hand, history shows markets have often avoided paying high multiples for peak memory earnings, and a stock trading at less than 10 times earnings after a more than 260% gain this year indicates many still foresee a downturn. A more immediate support for Micron shares is its December buyback, which is more concrete than any change in valuation multiples. Any indication of falling memory prices or accelerated capacity growth would quickly challenge the bullish view.

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Micron's earnings have outpaced its stock price, and D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria wagers that investors will ultimately assign a growth-stock valuation to a firm the market continues to see as cyclical.

• D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria lifted his Micron price target to $3,000 from $2,100, suggesting the shares could nearly triple from above $1,000.
• The target is based on roughly 19 times fiscal 2027 earnings, versus about six times currently; Micron's multiple has declined this year as earnings estimates rose faster than a more than 260% stock rally.
• Luria projects memory demand outstripping supply for several years, fueled by AI applications that benefit from greater memory capacity.
• He also points to a significant buyback anticipated in December, after Chips Act repurchase restrictions expire.
• His target significantly exceeds consensus: before the 30 September results, the average analyst target was near $1,560, Wells Fargo's was $1,400, and Goldman Sachs had a Hold rating at $1,100.
• Micron posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of roughly $54 billion, beating estimates, and projected the current quarter at about $61.5 billion.

According to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, Micron Technology shares could nearly triple as investors begin to recognize the memory chipmaker's growth potential; he raised his price target to $3,000 from $2,100 on Wednesday, MarketWatch, part of Dow Jones, reported (may be gated).

Luria contended that investors are only beginning to determine Micron's value and that the market has not fully accounted for the firm's anticipated growth over the next three to five years. With the stock trading just above $1,000, his target implies nearly 200% upside.

The thesis depends on valuation, not on more bullish earnings estimates. Luria's target envisions Micron trading at about 19 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings per share, compared with around six times now, per Dow Jones Market Data. That multiple has actually contracted since the end of 2025, despite the stock gaining more than 260% this year, because earnings expectations have risen faster than the share price. Conversely, the target implies fiscal 2027 earnings of roughly $158 a share, roughly matching consensus rather than exceeding it. Wells Fargo, for instance, projects about $166.

Luria's bullish view stems from his belief that memory chip demand will outstrip supply for years, as AI models operate faster and yield better outcomes with more memory. He also noted a major buyback program anticipated in December, after Micron is freed from repurchase curbs tied to its Chips Act funding. Share buybacks reduce the outstanding count, potentially boosting earnings per share.

The target diverges sharply from other Wall Street estimates. Before Micron's 30 September results, the average analyst target was roughly $1,560, Wells Fargo had cut its target to $1,400, and Goldman Sachs had a neutral rating at $1,100. Those figures were strong. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was about $54 billion, exceeding forecasts around $51.5 billion, and Micron guided the current quarter to roughly $61.5 billion, significantly above consensus.

The main challenge for Luria's argument is historical precedent. Memory stocks have historically carried low multiples at peak earnings as investors expect the next decline. His target essentially wagers that AI demand has altered that dynamic, and Micron's upcoming guidance and memory price trends will indicate whether the market concurs.