Musk's Tesla x SpaceX Post Stirs Merger Talk as Roadster Flying Bets Grow

By pairing Tesla x SpaceX with a link to the Roadster event, Elon Musk reignited merger speculation between the two companies. Polymarket participants now assign a 60% probability to the car flying for a second or longer.

Neither Tesla (TSLA) nor SpaceX (SPCX) has acknowledged merger negotiations, yet the posting arrives as analysts publicly weigh the prospect. The Roadster, a sports car introduced in 2017, is reported to rely on SpaceX thrusters for its demo, placing both brands center stage.

What Keeps Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation Returning?

The topic came up again in May as SpaceX pushed toward a Nasdaq listing.

SpaceX subsequently debuted on June 12 at $135 per share, for a $1.77 trillion valuation, and the offering became the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

On October 14, SpaceX closed with a $2.07 trillion market capitalization, while Tesla's shares have fallen about 18% this year.

Within days of its listing, SpaceX stock hit a high of $225.64 before sliding.

Musk's AI company xAI, meanwhile, was folded into SpaceX in February.

Barclays considers a stock-based SpaceX buyout of Tesla the more likely outcome, leaving Musk with roughly 37% of the equity and 56% of the voting rights.

The firm sees value in integration, not financial engineering, citing Tesla's robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots joining SpaceX's AI initiatives.

Wedbush's Dan Ives has forecast better-than-80% odds of a Tesla-SpaceX combination by 2027.

Musk did say on Tesla's July earnings call, however, that any deal would have to go through a proper process.

Tesla x SpaceX https://t.co/jJ438jodlY

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 16, 2026

Can a Flying Roadster Upstage the Merger Story?

Polymarket flagged speculation about a high-speed maneuver, pointing to a sharply backward-curved ramp at the venue.

JUST IN: Tesla has erected a towering, backward-curving ramp at tonight's Roadster event, raising speculation about a possible high-speed stunt.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 15, 2026

Reports suggest the Roadster will be operated remotely and hover using SpaceX thrusters that discharge compressed gas.

Wall Street has tended to punish Tesla's big reveals in the past. The stock fell after the Cybertruck, the 2024 Cybercab robotaxi, and a September Cybercab event.

Bloomberg cited Barclays as saying a deal could emerge before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, which must be held by December 6.

A flight would resolve the Polymarket betting market, but only a filing would settle the merger question. Either way, investors must price in a founder who heads two trillion-dollar public companies.