Nasdaq leads decline, oil surges in mixed session

Market data:

• Gold declined by $2 to $4168
• US 10-year yield dropped 2 bps to 5.09%
• S&P 500 lost 1.2%
• Nasdaq fell 2.3%
• WTI crude climbed $3.40 to $101.37
• NZD outperformed, USD underperformed

S&P 500 futures opened the North American session on an uptick but quickly reversed course. Reports from a day earlier about a possible AI fund collapse continued to circulate and gained steam today. Neocloud stocks came under renewed pressure amid speculation that CoreWeave could use equity to meet debt obligations. The selling was not limited to them alone, as funding issues highlighted the challenge of raising enough capital for the promised AI expansion. The SOX semiconductor index fell for an eighth day.

Crude oil puzzle remained somewhat of as a mystery, with prices surging in the US afternoon. The usual suspects are being cited, including the risk of US escalation in Iran over the weekend. The bond market ended lower as yields fell earlier in the day, taking cues from equities. Prior to that, Warsh did not offer much insight into his stance ahead of the upcoming meeting, which was generally taken as an endorsement of current market pricing. 

The US dollar slumped again, another sign among the correlation between AI investment and the dollar. Notably, NZD was the strongest performer on a day when US major indexes fell 1–2%, highlighting the upending of the old trading paradigm.

The Nasdaq 100's weekly decline was the largest since April 2025.

The week ahead features an pickup from earnings releases, including Meta and Tesla.