Netflix Has Lost Nearly Half Its Value in a Year. Can It Stop Falling?

Netflix shares are trading around $68, about half the $134 peak from June 2025. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos conceded on Thursday that the company's expansion is falling short of his wishes.

Sarandos largely attributes the slowdown to Netflix's own spending decisions. But a rising number of investors sees a more serious threat in competitors with far larger pockets.

Why is Netflix Stock Dropping?

At Bloomberg's Screentime event in Los Angeles, Sarandos identified live programming as a major drag on growth.

“Overall, we’re not growing as fast as I want us to… We are, though, also doing things that create a lot of headwind.”

Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, via Yahoo

Live events consume about 5% of Netflix's $20 billion annual content budget, yet they account for only about 1% of total viewing hours.

Total viewing edged up just 2% on a year-over-year basis in the first half of 2026.

Netflix $NFLX co-CEO Ted Sarandos says the company “isn’t growing as fast as I want us to.”

“We are, though, also doing things that create a lot of headwind to that number.”

Live programming uses 5% of Netflix’s $20B content budget but drives only 1% of viewing.

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) October 1, 2026

Not everyone is convinced by that explanation. Investor Stock Market Nerd argued that live programming attracts a disproportionately large share of new, engaged members, which should compensate for the cost.

I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.

The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.

I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but…

— Brad Freeman (@StockMarketNerd) October 1, 2026

Can a Pure-Play Streamer Outspend Big Tech?

The investor instead points to Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet as the competition. Those tech giants can finance streaming libraries without requiring them to generate much profit.

Amazon on its own carries a valuation near $3 trillion, about 10 times Netflix's $285 billion market cap.

Viewing patterns back the worry. According to TheStreet, YouTube pulled in a record 14.2% of US TV viewing in July.

In June, Netflix's share stood at 7.9%, Nielsen's last reading before the methodology shifted.

Wall Street, meanwhile, is divided. On September 18, Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix to underweight with a $57 target; HSBC, meanwhile, moved to hold.

Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy on September 30, assigning a $95 target and citing 18% Asia-Pacific revenue growth.

Guidance accounts for the caution. According to Fool, Netflix's forecasts for next-quarter revenue growth decreased from 15% to 13% to 12% during 2026.

Netflix Stock Price Outlook

Since the June 2025 record, NFLX has been forming lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. It is now testing the November 2021 peak near $68.

Sitting just below is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $61.29, a level traders use to measure pullback depth. Together, the two mark a support band.

Above, the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $89.10, which was lost, now acts as resistance. The falling 50-week moving average is in roughly the same area.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying a bullish divergence. The stock is moving toward oversold territory. Price made lower lows in February and July, while RSI produced higher lows.

A third drive lower would likely need a dip beneath the $65.08 July low, along with a sustained break under $61. If that happens, Netflix stock could be headed toward $41.

NFLX is off roughly 27% for the year even though the S&P 500 reached a record high in August. The October 20 report may determine whether investors still prize a pure-play streamer competing against companies that see content as a side business.