Nike's buyback program leaves $7.9B opportunity cost

Nike spent close to $12.1 billion repurchasing stock that has since lost most of its value, sitting at roughly $4.2 billion now.

Since June 2022, Nike shelled out an average of $97.57 per share for 124.4 million of its own shares. Today, the share price started at $33.70, which means the buybacks carry a $7.9 billion opportunity cost.

Technically, the company cancelled the repurchased shares, so it does not show a realized or unrealized loss on the books. But the arithmetic works out the same, and the badly timed buys cannot be undone.

Waiting until now would have allowed the management to buy back roughly three times as many shares. But the program started in June 2022, and the stock has fallen 71% even with the aggressive buying.

The buybacks, which proved fruitless, ate up three years' worth of net income earned from fiscal 2024-2026, and Nike's share price currently sits 65% below its average repurchase cost.

Existing shareholders now hold a larger proportion of the company, but that bigger stake comes with a much smaller business.

Nike's market value has tumbled from $187 billion in June 2022 to $51 billion today.

Nike's 'horrendous' revenue outlook

Even as the share price dropped, Nike kept buying stock, spending $4.3 billion in fiscal 2024 and $3 billion in fiscal 2025.

Come fiscal 2026, the firm recognized that these costs were rising quickly and cut its purchases down to a mere $122 million.

So far this year, shares are down another 46%.

Nike guide horrendous

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) October 1, 2026

Even in the three months through August 31, 2025, Nike blamed “lower operating cash flows” for halting its buyback program.

With less cash coming in, the buybacks stopped, and pessimistic traders sold into a market with fewer bids.

About $5.9 billion remains from the original $18 billion buyback authorization, yet Nike has not recently signaled any plan to return to the earlier pace of repurchases.

As Protos reported when the stock touched a 13-year trough on Friday, Nike's struggles stem from falling sales in greater China, lost market share to competitors, cost pressures from tariffs, and a subdued revenue forecast that Jim Cramer labeled as 'horrendous.'