Oil Slides 4.6% on $8B Iran Strait Deal Report; Bitcoin Falls Alongside

Brent crude dropped roughly 4.6% on Monday following a report that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for $8 billion in frozen assets. Bitcoin (BTC) also declined, slipping to around $73,600.

An agreement would lower US fuel expenses and might ease the inflationary pressures that are pushing the Federal Reserve toward a December interest rate increase. However, senior US officials are against it, and Iran's nuclear program is not part of the discussions.

What Would the $8 Billion US-Iran Hormuz Deal Change?

The US would remove its naval blockade and release Iranian funds held in Qatar. In return, Iran would cease attacks on Gulf shipping, according to Israel Hayom, which cited two unnamed diplomatic sources.

Iran has also reportedly abandoned its demand to control the strait and impose transit fees on vessels.

BREAKING: The US and Iran are considering an $8 billion deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the proposal:

1. The US releases $8 billion in frozen Iranian funds.
2. The US lifts its naval blockade on Iran.
3. Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Iran stops attacks on… pic.twitter.com/ZcvJW53GMf

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) November 9, 2026

Vice President JD Vance is supporting the agreement. President Donald Trump agreed to accelerate negotiations partly because Republicans lost the midterms, the report said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are said to oppose it. One official warned the deal would rescue Tehran's leadership at the last moment.

Trump was scheduled to discuss the offer with Qatar's prime minister in Washington on Monday.

Why Didn’t Bitcoin Rally with Cheaper Oil?

Bitcoin traded at $74,437 at the time of writing, roughly 8% below its November 5 high of about $81,000. Brent stood at $93.81, down from Friday's settlement of $98.32.

Interest rates are the connection. CME FedWatch indicated a 76.8% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December as of November 6.

Fuel contributes to those odds. Gasoline accounted for more than half of September's US price increase, according to Labor Department data. AAA reported the national average at $4.10 a gallon on November 5.

Lower oil prices have supported Bitcoin before. On November 4, Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 as oil dropped about 12%.

However, on November 2, reports of peace talks boosted gold and silver prices while Bitcoin underperformed.

What Could Still Sink the Hormuz Deal?

A similar agreement in Switzerland in May fell apart after an Iranian tanker attack, Israel Hayom noted.

Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta wrote that a successful deal could drive oil toward pre-war levels. In contrast, limited US strikes might trigger a short-lived rally.

Tuesday's October inflation report arrives first, testing whether the oil decline affects rate expectations and the Bitcoin price outlook.