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Oil surge, bond slide strengthen case for Fed rate hike
Oil crosses $100, 10-year yields reach 4.90%, and hot PPI reinforces Sept. 16 Fed hike bets.
10/09/2026 13:046 min read
The US dollar is running hot on the day, with market participants now convinced the Federal Reserve has no real option but to raise rates.
Oil has climbed for an eighth straight session, and the advance is speeding up. WTI has added $4.25 on the day to reach $100.42, breaking through the psychologically key $100 mark as the rally keeps intensifying.
Traders are piling into crude after Trump said yesterday that the conflict will not end until after the midterms. The much-awaited August CPI report due tomorrow was already considered a decisive moment for the Fed, but with oil at current levels, a red-hot September inflation print looks all but assured as gasoline and diesel costs surge.
Bonds are buckling as oil rises. The US 10-year yield has jumped 6.6 basis points to 4.90%, the highest level since 2023.
Trump also renewed his pledge yesterday to send $5,000 checks to Americans should Republicans capture both the House and Senate. He previously floated similar payouts tied to DOGE savings and tariffs, but neither materialized. The market does not appear to give this latest promise much credit, yet it is another symptom of the administration's reckless spending and the Tea Party movement's complete surrender.
Today's PPI report has strengthened the case for a Fed rate increase on Sept. 16. Producer prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% consensus, and the prior month's figure was revised up by 0.1 percentage point.
Forecasts call for tomorrow's CPI to come in at 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, with current conditions adding a slight upward bias to that projection.
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