OpenAI Faces 'WeWork of AI' Risk After IPO Delay, Says Gary Marcus

Gary Marcus, an NYU professor emeritus, drew a parallel between OpenAI and WeWork, linking it to OpenAI's delayed IPO. The company was most recently valued at $852 billion in private markets.

Marcus stated the warning is pertinent to Nvidia (NVDA) shareholders and AI infrastructure lenders. A valuation decline for OpenAI could affect chip demand and financing costs. He asserted that sentiment, not fundamentals, would cause the harm.

Could a Hold-Up in OpenAI's IPO Make It the 'WeWork of AI'?

OpenAI filed its IPO confidentially in June, but CEO Sam Altman later said a 2026 listing would not happen. The company's previous private valuation was set during a $122 billion funding round in March.

New private fundraising talks point to valuations ranging from $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion for OpenAI. Meanwhile, onchain markets have driven Anthropic's estimated pre-IPO valuation past $1 trillion, also without any public share price to verify those figures.

Marcus invoked WeWork as the cautionary example. In 2019, WeWork's filing revealed first-half losses of nearly $700 million. Its private market valuation quickly collapsed from $47 billion to around $10 billion within a few weeks.

Marcus also observed that WeWork never finished its traditional IPO process. It eventually went public via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2021, before filing for bankruptcy in 2023.

Who Determines OpenAI's Value While It Holds Off?

Anthropic is planning an IPO for November, before OpenAI. According to Marcus, it still seeks a valuation around $1.5 trillion, although he noted other reports place it closer to $1.1 trillion. This is down from the $2 trillion target that was being discussed just a month ago.

OpenAI's revenue hit $13 billion in 2025, according to a Reuters report. Marcus estimates the company's monthly operating losses at close to $2 billion.

Marcus identified neo clouds—younger companies that lease out AI computing power—as the most vulnerable to a valuation adjustment. He added that their cost of capital is rising.

The pricing of Anthropic's IPO could establish the benchmark for around $600 billion in expected OpenAI hardware expenditures through 2030. The same metric would also affect the chip manufacturers and financial institutions backing this infrastructure. A successful debut for Anthropic would undermine the worrying comparison to WeWork.