OpenAI safety team member estimates 70% human extinction risk in three years

A staff member from OpenAI's Safety Oversight team claimed a 70% probability of human extinction in the next three years if AI labs do not slow their work or regulators intervene.

Marcus Williams, a May 2025 hire at OpenAI, issued the forecast on X. He initially shared a warning and only added the percentage after being prompted by another user.

How the extinction estimate emerged

Williams wrote that human extinction appears very likely in the coming years absent AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown across labs.

A different user proposed a bet involving $10,000 in Microsoft shares versus OpenAI stock over five years. Williams responded with a percentage.

“70% in the next 3 years if there isn’t regulation/slowdown although i think regulation/slowdown is very possible”

Unless there is AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown between labs, human extinction in the next few years seems very likely

— Marcus Williams (@Marcus_J_W) September 10, 2026

The hedge is as significant as the probability itself. Williams considers regulation or a slowdown plausible, meaning he does not view the outcome as certain.

Washington already acting on AI risk

This post arrived during a week that brought lab safety into the political mainstream. On September 9, an Anthropic researcher resigned, charging Anthropic and OpenAI with endangering human lives.

Within a day, US lawmakers responded. A new effort to halt AI emerged, featuring a Senate bill that would outright ban superintelligence.

Voices beyond the labs have also raised the alarm. The UN human rights chief described advanced AI as an existential threat earlier this week in Geneva.

Williams remains at the far end of these predictions. Evan Hubinger, head of alignment science at Anthropic, estimates the odds at over 10% this decade. Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton has given a range of 10% to 20%.

In the meantime, crypto traders are now following these warnings directly. Polymarket shared Williams's post to its followers within hours, and its users already price elections and macro events along with token odds.

Thus, the short-term challenge is political, not technical. Whether regulators will act within Williams's three-year timeframe is still uncertain, and his own assessment so far is that regulation remains possible.