Palantir tops Q3 estimates, raises full-year revenue outlook to about $8.53 billion

The fourth-quarter revenue forecast exceeded analyst expectations by roughly $200 million, and the guidance—rather than the quarterly numbers themselves—will probably determine how the stock trades. A beat of this magnitude from such a closely watched AI software company supports the broader AI investment narrative, with Apple's results also upcoming. The implications for US tech futures and enterprise software peers are positive, though the initial after-hours reaction could be reassessed after executives discuss 2027 demand on the conference call.

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Earlier coverage:

• Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching

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Palantir exceeded expectations on all key financial metrics and boosted its full-year outlook significantly above consensus, making the demand trajectory for next year the primary uncertainty for shareholders.

Key figures:

• Q3 adjusted EPS came in at $0.44, above the $0.41 estimate; revenue reached approximately $2.31 billion, compared with forecasts ranging from $2.17 billion to $2.18 billion
• Adjusted operating income totaled roughly $1.43 billion, versus expectations of about $1.3 billion
• US commercial revenue was approximately $984 million, ahead of the estimated $937 million; the company now projects full-year US commercial revenue above about $3.56 billion
• Q4 guidance: revenue of roughly $2.65 billion (consensus around $2.46 billion), adjusted operating income of about $1.64 billion (estimate near $1.45 billion)
• Full-year revenue outlook raised to roughly $8.53 billion from an earlier range of approximately $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion, above the consensus of about $8.21 billion
• Full-year adjusted operating income guided to about $5.25 billion, above estimates of roughly $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion

Palantir Technologies exceeded analyst projections across all key metrics in the third quarter. The company also raised its full-year guidance significantly above Wall Street estimates, with its fourth-quarter revenue view coming in about 8% higher than consensus.

For the three months ended September, the data analytics and AI firm posted adjusted earnings of $0.44 a share, beating the $0.41 consensus. Revenue was roughly $2.31 billion, versus estimates in the range of $2.17 billion to $2.18 billion. Adjusted operating income came to about $1.43 billion, topping expectations of roughly $1.3 billion. Those figures imply an adjusted operating margin of approximately 62%.

US commercial revenue, a key indicator of business demand for Palantir’s platform, totaled roughly $984 million, above the approximately $937 million analysts expected. Palantir said it now sees full-year US commercial revenue exceeding about $3.56 billion.

The guidance was the main focus. Palantir forecast fourth-quarter revenue of roughly $2.65 billion, compared with the analyst consensus of around $2.46 billion. The company also projected adjusted operating income for the quarter at about $1.64 billion, versus estimates of roughly $1.45 billion.

For the full fiscal year, Palantir increased its revenue forecast to roughly $8.53 billion, up from an earlier range of about $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion. That is above the consensus estimate of approximately $8.21 billion. Additionally, the company guided for full-year adjusted operating income of around $5.25 billion, exceeding expectations that ranged from about $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion, depending on the source.

The magnitude of the guidance increase is significant because only one quarter remains in the year, typically a period when companies have little capacity to surprise. Boosting the annual revenue target by roughly $370 million at this juncture indicates demand heading into year end that is stronger than Palantir previously indicated. The profit outlook, which implies margins roughly in line with the third quarter, suggests the additional growth is not reducing profitability.

Focus now shifts to how long that momentum can sustain into 2027. Executives' remarks about demand for the coming year and whether US commercial growth can maintain its current rate will probably influence the share reaction beyond the initial earnings surprise.