Gold rebounds after dip below $4,110; bias stays neutral to bearish
Gold briefly dipped below $4,110 support but recovered, as geopolitical tensions support oil; the technical bias remains neutral to bearish.
Perth Mint gold and silver sales jumped in September as spot prices fell, pushing gold volumes to a seven-month peak.
A notable trend emerged as physical purchases strengthened while prices declined, hinting that retail buyers view falling markets as a chance to buy rather than a signal to sell. This dynamic could provide some support during downturns, even if coin and bar buying by individuals is relatively small compared to the institutional trading that generally dictates gold's price. The September figures got a seasonal boost from the debut of new Lunar series coins, meaning October will offer a clearer read on whether bargain-hunting continues in the absence of a fresh product. Meanwhile, silver's slight annual increase implies the monthly spike partially marks a bounceback from a sluggish August rather than a definitive shift in demand patterns.
Spot bullion markets took a beating in September, but at the Perth Mint the price retreat looked like a promotion, as customers bought up gold at almost twice the previous month's rate.
Highlights from the month:
Gold product sales at the West Australian refiner almost doubled month-on-month in September, reaching the highest volume in seven months, as customers boosted buying during a steep monthly drop in bullion prices, the Perth Mint stated on Wednesday.
The Mint disclosed that gold coins and minted bars traded around 47,000 ounces throughout the month. This was roughly twice the August volume and approximately 29% above the level from twelve months prior.
Silver buying also improved noticeably. Volumes climbed to roughly 605,000 ounces from about 334,000 ounces the prior month, an 81% jump that was the strongest since March. Over a twelve-month span, though, silver sales increased just 4.5%, indicating some of the September leap was a rebound from the weaker August reading.
The Mint highlighted the introduction of new items as a primary catalyst. Neil Vance, the Perth Mint's general manager of distributors and product development, cited the inaugural releases of the 2027 Year of the Goat coins in its longstanding Lunar series as a September standout. He described the collector and bullion ranges as receiving a satisfying response, with collectors consistently attracted to the series for its artistry and workmanship.
The improved sales occurred against a challenging price environment. The spot gold price declined by over 6% during September, and silver fell by 9%. The pairing of rising volumes and declining prices suggests individual investors took the price dip as a chance to build up their positions, a frequent occurrence in physical bullion markets when values drop from high points. This is seen as a reading of the sequence of events, not a causal link made by the Mint, which tied the results to its fresh coin offerings.
The Perth Mint, a Western Australian government entity, bills itself as the world's top refiner of newly mined gold and Australia's biggest refiner in volume. Market participants track its monthly sales data closely for signs of retail appetite for precious metals in the region.
The October data will indicate if the momentum continues after the initial Lunar series effect dissipates, and if customers continue to view softer prices as a buying opportunity.
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