Polymarket: 53% Chance Trump Renames AI by Sept. 30, 69% by Year-End

Polymarket traders are pricing a 53% probability that President Donald Trump will officially rename artificial intelligence (AI) by Sept. 30. That figure climbs to 69% for a year-end target.

Since mid-September, Trump has been advocating replacing “artificial” with “super”. One bureau at the State Department has already adopted the revised terminology.

What the Polymarket Bet on Trump Renaming AI Requires

Volume on the Polymarket contract has reached around $670,000. Roughly 91% of that is concentrated on the Sept. 30 outcome, which is trading at 53 cents.

The Oct. 31 contract is at 63% odds but with just $3,179 in volume. The Dec. 31 contract, meanwhile, shows a 69% probability backed by nearly $60,000.

Rhetoric or social media posts will not decide the wager. It pays out as “Yes” solely if an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum is issued. Such a document would have to introduce a new federal designation for AI or instruct agencies to adopt one.

From a Social Media Poll to the UN Podium

Trump described the existing term as “inaccurate, and very ineloquent” and solicited suggestions from his supporters. His poll saw “Superior Intelligence” receive about 41% out of over 230,000 votes. He subsequently abandoned “Supreme Intelligence” because of its association with the Supreme Court.

On Sept. 22, at the UN General Assembly, he opted for a briefer term instead.

“From this point forward, all of United States documents and hopefully the world’s will be changed to use the much more accurate term ‘super’ as opposed to artificial.”

Two days afterward, he referred to “Super Intelligence (SI)” in a post regarding his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Already Adopted but Still Unofficial

Certain officials acted without formal paperwork. On that same day, a senior official sent an email to staff at the State Department's Bureau of International Organization Affairs, according to AP. The message instructed them to substitute the old term in all materials and job descriptions.

That internal email does not satisfy the Polymarket condition. Critics, meanwhile, have challenged the rebranding effort. Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene contended that a new name will not soothe community frustration over data-center water consumption and noise.

University of Chicago marketing professor Jean-Pierre Dubé told Newsweek that the label is premature. He observed that superintelligence already refers to AI that surpasses human cognitive abilities.

Trump is additionally said to be meeting with AI chief executives on Sept. 29. If an order is signed before 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 30, the closest contract would be resolved. Failing that, traders will look to the October and December deadlines.