Qatar says US-Iran talks still on as Trump meets Qatari PM, oil swings on conflicting signs

For crude markets, the Qatar meeting represents the key event of the session. Any signs of a credible move toward a ceasefire and nuclear discussions would bring back the selling that emerged at the open following Trump’s comments on CNN. If the divide on sanctions relief proves insurmountable, as Rubio’s remarks indicate, the risk of escalation moves to the forefront again. The recent strikes on Iraqi gas and Saudi infrastructure, ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington’s increasing economic pressure through Task Force Iron Gate all maintain a baseline for the war-risk premium. Until concrete progress emerges from talks, headline-driven volatility in both directions appears more probable than a sustained move either up or down.

Oil spent the day caught between Trump’s hopeful tone and Rubio’s negative assessment, with Qatar now insisting a deal remains achievable and Trump’s meeting with its prime minister serving as the next indicator of whether diplomacy can outpace escalation.

• Qatar, acting as mediator, denied that the US and Iran had failed to strike a deal, stating that both sides continue working toward an agreement.
• Iran has reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington via Qatar, with conditions including sanctions relief.
• Trump meets the Qatari prime minister at 12:00 US Eastern, 17:00 GMT, to discuss a new ceasefire and restarting nuclear talks.
• Crude declined at the open following Trump’s CNN remarks, then rebounded to around flat after Rubio’s pessimistic comments.
• Attacks on Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field and on Riyadh, along with continued Hormuz disruption, have capped oil’s downside.
• US Central Command has launched Task Force Iron Gate to target Iran’s economy.

Qatar, which brokers communication between Washington and Tehran, has rejected reports that the US and Iran failed to reach a deal, saying both sides are still pursuing an agreement. The remarks come as US President Donald Trump prepares to meet the Qatari prime minister on Monday.

The talks are scheduled for 12:00 US Eastern time, 17:00 GMT, and will centre on efforts to secure a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran, according to Axios. Iran has reportedly submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, though it depends on the US meeting Tehran’s conditions, including sanctions relief.

The Qatari intervention adds another layer to a day marked by sharply conflicting signals for oil markets. Crude futures dropped at the start of trading after Trump told CNN that it was highly unlikely the US would need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress was made on Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Prices then rose to nearly flat after Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the talks had not been productive because Iran’s demands were simply unacceptable, and warned that a diplomatic solution is sometimes not possible.

The situation on the ground has also argued against complacency. Reports of ongoing strikes in the Strait of Hormuz have continued, while a suspected Iranian drone attack halted output at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field and cut off much of the Kurdistan region’s electricity. Yemen’s Houthi movement struck the Aramco Tower in Riyadh and claimed attacks on Aramco oil storage facilities, directly putting the world’s largest crude exporter in the line of fire.

Washington is also tightening the economic squeeze. US Central Command has announced Task Force Iron Gate as part of efforts against Iran’s economy. This adds to a reward of up to $20 million for information on Tehran’s nuclear programme and pressure on Iraq to close most of its border crossings with Iran.

The Qatar meeting is now the key near-term marker. A credible path back to a ceasefire and nuclear talks would revive the de-escalation case that weighed on crude early in the session. A gap that remains too wide on sanctions relief, as Rubio’s comments suggest, would keep escalation risk firmly in play. Trump’s expected talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at next week’s APEC summit are the next diplomatic test.