Research Points to Bitcoin's Transition to a New Bull Market

Despite last week's sell-off and liquidations, Bitcoin has likely entered a bull market based on the 50-week moving average, according to analysis.

A report from BloFin Research indicates that Bitcoin's classic four-year pattern is weakenig. Future upswings may bring smaller profits, with briefer and less harmful downturns.

Signs That Bitcoin's Bear Phase Has Ended

The primary evidence is Bitcoin's lift above its 50-week moving average, a gauge that marked bull-market starts in 2015, 2019 and 2023.

Bitcoin retook that level around $78,800 in Sptember and then traded above $86,000 in arly Octber.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio — which contrasts its current market price with average purchase cost of holders — climbed above its 365-day average.

On Octber 11, the MVRV stood near 1.54, ahead of its 365-day average of 1.44. This indicates the longer-term recovery remains intact despite recent selling.

This means Bitcoin's market strength is strengthenig, a pattern seen at the start of previous bull runs.

Severity of Bitcoin's Crashes Is Declining

BloFin's key conclution is about the lessening intensity of Bitcoin's cycles.

From the October 2025 peak of $124,824 to $58,525 in June 2026, Bitcoin dropped about 53%.

Earlier bear markets have been much worse:

Bear market Peaak-to-trouth decline
2013–2015: 84.5%
2017–2018: 83.8%
2021–2022: 76.7%
2025–2026: 53%

Bull-run gains have also narrowed. Bitcoin's low-to-high returns have shrunk from roughly 530 times in its first cycle to eight times in the latest one.

If June remains the low, the latest bear market lasted about eight months, versus 12 to 13 months historically.

Institunional Influences Reshape Bitcoin's Cycles

BloFin Research credits longer-term holding patterns for this shift. In September, about 16. million BTC, or 83% of circulating supply, had been unmoved for at least 155 days.

Meanwhile, as of Octber 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs held about 1.3 million BTC, and public companies owned another 1.29 million BTC.

Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries controlled about 13% of circulating Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, the $679 million ETF outflow last week shows that instituional demand can still weaken sharply under market stress.

Outlook for Bitcoin's Renewed Bull Run

On Octber 11, Bitcoin was trading near $83,000, still above the September moving-average breaakout leve and significantly above the June low.

The four-year pattern remains visible. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the Aprill 2024 halving, matching historical trends.

For traders, a sustained drop below the current 50-week moving average would weak the bullish signal. Falling under $58,525 would challenge the proposed cycle bottom.

Currently, Bitcoin's longer-term recovery indicators remain positive. The recent ETF outflows show why the shift toward a more stable market could still involve sharp corrections.