S&P 500 Bull Market Reaches Fourth Anniversary With Historical Upside

On Monday, the S&P 500 bull market enters its fourth year, having gained 119% from its October 2022 trough to a new record. Six prior rallies continued beyond the four-year mark, though in four cases subsequent bear markets pushed the index below that anniversary level.

The current rally nearly came to an end in 2025. On a closing basis, the index dropped 18.9%, just shy of the 20% decline that traditionally signals a bull market's conclusion.

Where Does the Current S&P 500 Bull Market Stand Against Past Ones?

The index settled at a record 7,818.93 on Oct. 6. That marks a roughly 119% increase from its 3,577.03 close on Oct. 12, 2022, when the rally began.

Using dates from investment research firm Yardeni Research, Motley Fool's Daniel Sparks identified six such runs.

By historical measure, the 1957 run was the briefest after age 4, ending roughly seven weeks later. Both the 1982 and 2002 runs lasted until around age 5.

In comparison, the 2009 run continued for nearly 11 years, and the 1987 run persisted for over 12.

After hitting the four-year mark, the 1987 run roughly quadrupled and the 2009 run more than doubled, Sparks calculated. Before peaking, the 1957 and 2002 runs added about 7% and 16%, respectively.

Does Surviving Age 4 Make a Bull Market a Safe Entry Point?

Nevertheless, four of the six rallies were followed by bear markets that pulled the index below its anniversary level, barely so in 1974.

For investors who bought in October 2006, that was about a year before the 2002 run hit its peak. By the March 2009 low, they were down roughly 50% excluding dividends.

Using data from financial data provider FactSet, Sparks calculated the index trades at about 26 times past-year earnings. That is above its 10-year average of 23.6.

On the other hand, when measured against earnings expected over the next 12 months, the index is near its 10-year average.

Sparks argues the calendar provides little guidance for a peak, though he anticipates a bear market eventually.

The milestone itself depends on methodology. Some investors date a new bull market from April 2025, as intraday losses exceeded 20%. Under that count, this rally is about 18 months old.