S&P 500 Rises 12.65% in 2026, Historical Crash Signal Reappears

The S&P 500 rose 12.65% during 2026, closing Friday at 7,711.75. A Wall Street Journal column asserts that 1901, not 1999, best mirrors the current speculative fervor.

The boom that followed ended in the Panic of 1907, and columnist Jason Zweig contends that expensive equities were never the real danger—leverage and wagering-like trading were.

Market Data Echoes 1901

Zweig points to one key figure: NYSE turnover hit 319% in 1901, meaning the entire market was exchanged approximately every four months.

Today in 1901, the yearly NYSE turnover hits record 319% showing short-term investing isnt new, as investors held shares for avg of 15 wks

— MoAF (@FinanceMuseum) December 31, 2010

Bucket shops handled the rest, allowing small clients to bet, with heavy leverage, on a stock's up or down movement. No shares actually changed hands. That bet is mirrored in today's market.

Same-day options represented 66.2% of all S&P 500 options volume in July, a record, per Cboe. Prediction market platforms again expanded their menus, from token prices to sports-event expressions.

Borrowing has also increased, with margin debt reaching $1.42 trillion in July, according to FINRA filings. A year earlier, it stood at $1.02 trillion.

BREAKING: US margin debt dropped -$85 billion in July, to $1.42 trillion, the largest monthly decline on record.

This also marks the first monthly decrease since March.

By comparison, the 2nd-biggest monthly drop was recorded in January 2022 at -$80 billion, just as the bear… pic.twitter.com/scrhStGdJd

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 18, 2026

Liquidity, Not Valuation, Broke 1907

The trigger appeared minor: two speculators failed to corner United Copper stock in October 1907. The fallout included runs on trust companies—lightly supervised lenders that held roughly 5% of deposits in cash—while national banks kept 25%.

Wall Street collapsed in October 1907 not because banks ran out of money, but because the shadow banking system had no lender of last resort.

It started with a failed corner on United Copper stock by F. Augustus Heinze and Charles W. Morse. When the corner collapsed, the margin… pic.twitter.com/I1jEatIeJi

— MD (@MDKASHIF_9) August 21, 2026

Cash then evaporated. Call money rates climbed from 9.5% to 70%, then to 100% two days later. J.P. Morgan brought cash to the exchange loan post to keep trading alive. Congress created the Federal Reserve six years afterward.

The Dow fell 40.9% from its December 1906 high to the November 1907 low, a National Bureau of Economic Research study found.

Most earlier bubble comparisons center on valuations. The Shiller P/E ratio is around 42, versus a long-term average of 17.4, and just under its December 1999 peak. Zweig's warning is more subdued and harder to protect against.

Cryptocurrencies share the same funding channels. Bitcoin trades near $78,618 and has moved in tandem with the S&P 500 during past risk events.

Cash feels burdensome while markets rise. It becomes leverage the moment everyone else needs it.