S&P 500 seeks technical rebound as 100-day support holds post-Fed

The S&P 500 is poised for a rebound at the open, with stock futures climbing 0.8% in early trading. While the Federal Reserve's rate decision dominated Wednesday's session, the charts deserve attention now.

Equities slipped on Wednesday after the Fed lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% and indicated that additional increases are likely. The vote in favour of the move was unanimous, and 16 of the 18 policymakers see at least one more hike through the end of this year.

That initially unsettled the markets, but the more notable development for stocks is where the decline halted.

The S&P 500 found support right at its 100-day moving average (red line), which sits near 7,510 on the chart. That level also aligns closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at around 7,463, giving dip buyers a fairly well-defined zone to defend. So far, they are doing exactly that.

Heading into the open, equities are showing some relief with futures maintaining their gains. A calmer tone in longer-dated Treasury yields and softer crude prices are lending support, easing some pressure on valuations in the wake of the Fed's hawkish stance.

Still, on the technical side, I would not get ahead of myself.

The immediate hurdle for the S&P 500 is reclaiming the 7,600 area, which had acted as support before breaking down. A push back above that level would make the bounce appear more credible and bring the recent highs near 7,800 back into play.

Unless buyers can clear that, this could still turn out to be just another bear-market rally.

As market participants keep weighing the Fed's decision, the 100-day moving average is the level I am monitoring most closely. Should the bond vigilantes reappear and push yields back above 5%, that would quickly sour sentiment and drag stocks lower.

The risk is a decisive close below the 100-day moving average, which would significantly damage the technical outlook and open the door to a test of the 7,300 level.

In short, the bulls have held their ground where they needed to for now. The next step is proving they can extend that gains or risk a sharper decline.