Solana rallies after dovish Fed remarks cut rate hike odds

Fundamental Overview

Over the last few days, no fresh catalysts specific to Solana have emerged, with macro and geopolitical factors continuing to drive price movements.

This week's rally was fueled by dovish remarks from Fed's Williams and Fed's Jefferson, giving a lift to the crypto market despite the ongoing US-Iran standoff.

Williams (New York Fed President) and Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) are two of the three members forming the Fed "troika," along with the Chair. Their statements usually influence markets considerably, and on this occasion they prompted a dovish repricing that lowered the chance of an October rate hike from near 70% to about 25%.

Going forward, attention will stay on Middle East events and the Fed. A resolution in US-Iran talks could boost Solana as bets on aggressive Fed tightening would be reduced. Conversely, a drawn-out stalemate or fresh escalation might cap gains unless the Fed remains more dovish than anticipated.

Also on the schedule today is the US nonfarm payrolls report. Following the recent Williams and Jefferson comments, a strong report that beats on all fronts would likely be needed to revive October rate hike expectations. That could cause another hawkish repricing and put downward pressure on Solana short term.

On the other hand, data meeting forecasts or coming in weaker would probably cement the dovish repricing and allow Solana to continue its recent advance.

Solana Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

Solana found support from the dovish Fed comments. The major upward trendline will remain a key support in case of a pullback. Buyers are likely to lean on the trendline, with risk defined below it, aiming for the 149.00 level. Sellers will look for a break lower to extend the correction toward the 97.00 support.

Solana Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

There is a minor support zone near the 117.00 level. A pullback to that level could see buyers step in with risk defined below, aiming for new highs. Sellers will seek a break lower to extend the pullback toward the major trendline.

Solana Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

A minor upward trendline defines the recent bullish move. On a pullback, buyers could lean on it with risk below, aiming for new highs. Sellers will target a break lower to extend the pullback to the 117.00 support.

Upcoming Catalysts

The week ends today with the US NFP report.