Nominal growth, not yield levels, is the metric for small caps: Goldman Sachs
A Goldman Sachs note argues the growth backdrop, not interest rate levels, is decisive for small-cap performance. Nominal GDP is near 6%.
SpaceX's surprise Q3 earnings show huge AI spending. Nvidia, Micron, and Seagate are three stocks to watch.
Wall Street is taking another look at AI hardware stocks after SpaceX's surprise quarterly results. Elon Musk's company is expected to invest billions more in computing infrastructure, potentially benefiting three US-listed companies.
The company posted Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion on Tuesday, a 161% increase from the prior year, along with net profit of $4.4 billion.
The AI segment brought in $7.56 billion, outperforming the connectivity unitāwhich contains Starlinkāthat generated $5.25 billion.
The real shock came on the expenditure side. Out of $19.6 billion in quarterly capital spending, $16.4 billion went to AI infrastructure. According to CFO Bret Johnsen, total outlays could hit $35ā$40 billion in the fourth quarter, about double what analysts had predicted.
SpaceX stock climbed about 2.5% in after-hours trading. Nvidia, Micron and Seagate each rose around 2% in extended trading, though other factors may have played a role.
The most direct beneficiary of SpaceX's scale-up is Nvidia.
Reuters reported earlier in October that SpaceX was attempting to secure $40 billion in funding to buy Nvidia chips for AI.
Such an order would represent a substantial boost in demand for Nvidia's processors, although the financing has not yet been finalized.
The consensus price target across 62 analysts stands at $328.72. Citi has a target of $315, while UBS sees the stock at $300.
We view Nvidia as the top play for direct exposure, though delayed financing and worries about excessive AI investment remain risks.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is essential for Nvidia's processors to manage intensive AI tasks, and Micron is a key provider of this technology.
Micron's most recent quarterly revenue hit $54.23 billion, more than four times the figure from a year ago.
Without a direct confirmed supply deal, SpaceX's expansion in computing could nonetheless boost demand for Micron's products.
The average analyst target from 49 analysts is $1,561. Bank of America projects $1,550, and KeyBanc has a $1,750 target.
Among the three stocks highlighted, Micron has the highest consensus upside, but memory prices are still susceptible to shifts in supply and demand.
Large-scale storage is another requirement of AI infrastructure, and Seagate produces high-capacity drives for cloud data centers.
Seagate's revenue for fiscal 2026 increased 34%, reaching $12.2 billion.
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley designated Seagate as a top hardware selection, raising its price target to $1,200, while JPMorgan cut its target to $1,050.
The consensus from 26 analysts is $1,138.
Seagate lacks a confirmed supply agreement with SpaceX, so its link is more speculative. The company's October 27 earnings report will offer a better gauge of storage demand.
The main issue going forward is whether SpaceX's aggressive AI spending will result in ongoing orders. Nvidia presents the most direct opportunity, while Micron and Seagate offer wider exposure to the infrastructure build-out, albeit with more risk.
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SpaceX exceeded Q3 forecasts for revenue, profit and all three segments, with AI revenue around $7.6 billion; capex remained above total sales.