SpaceX Stock Dips Below IPO Price; Binance Founder Calls It a Top Long-Term Bet

On Saturday, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated that SpaceX shares are among the best for long-term holding. The stock ended the previous session at $134.72, slightly below its $135 initial public offering price from June.

Investors who purchased at the IPO are now slightly in the red. Analysts on Wall Street project an 86% gain from current levels. Meanwhile, options market participants are pricing in a 14% move up or down by mid-December.

Is Binance Selling Its SpaceX Shares?

The exchange holds over $1 billion worth of SpaceX equity, originally built from a $500 million investment tied to Elon Musk's 2022 Twitter acquisition.

During a discussion about the exchange's hack-related losses on Friday, CZ referenced those holdings. A number of users interpreted this as a signal he might sell, but CZ dismissed that reading.

"I never said "selling SPCX shares"… I don't make threats… And I think it will be one of the best stocks to hold for a long time to come," CZ said.

Binance co-CEO Yi He noted that revenue generated this year is sufficient to cover the losses from the $6 billion hack.

Why Are Options Traders Bracing for December?

Lock-up agreements prevent early backers from selling shares for a predetermined time following the listing. SpaceX's last locked-up share tranche will become eligible for trading on December 8, per the schedule on Nasdaq.

Contracts expiring on December 18 are pricing in a roughly $19 move, equivalent to 14%, based on OptionCharts data. That translates to a trading range of $117 to $155.

A previous large unlock had the opposite effect. When more than 911 million insider shares became available on August 6, SPCX climbed over 6% toward $115.

How Much Upside Do Analysts See?

Among 35 analysts monitored by TipRanks, 29 have a Buy rating on SpaceX. The consensus price target of $250.34 implies approximately 86% upside from Friday's closing price.

The most bearish estimate, from Piper Sandler at $140, still exceeds the current market price.

The bear argument centers on valuation. According to MarketBeat, SpaceX trades at roughly 518 times annual earnings, despite third-quarter revenue surging 161% to $14.57 billion.

The December 8 unlock occurs ten days ahead of the options expiration.