SPR hits 286.6M barrels; Trump criticizes Biden

The SPR dropped by 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels, a low not seen since 1982–83. The reserve sits at roughly 40% of its 714-million-barrel capacity.

Both the Biden and Trump presidencies have seen steep declines in the reserve, driven by two wars and the associated spikes in world oil prices.

The sequence of events that brought the SPR to its current level is as follows:

• On January 20, 2021, the SPR contained about 638 million barrels at the start of Biden's term.
• In 2022, Biden ordered the release of 180 million barrels after Russia's attack on Ukraine. That drawdown, the biggest emergency release in SPR history, cut inventories to about 375 million barrels by the end of the year.
• The decline continued in 2023, with stockpiles falling to around 347 million barrels in the summer.
• From 2023 to 2024, the Department of Energy started to refill the reserve, buying about 59 million barrels. Lawmakers also scrapped 140 million barrels in earlier mandated sales.
• By January 2025, when Biden departed, the SPR was near 394 million barrels. That represented a net drop of about 244 million barrels, or 38%, over his term.
• Between 2025 and February 2026, purchases during the Trump administration pushed the reserve up to about 415 million barrels.
• In early 2026, after the Strait of Hormuz was closed, Trump approved a release of up to 172 million barrels, slightly less than Biden's 180-million-barrel release for Ukraine.
• On August 26, 2026, the SPR was at 286.6 million barrels, the lowest in over 40 years.

Since Trump came back to office, the reserve has dropped from about 394 million barrels to 286.6 million, a fall of 107.4 million barrels. That loss is much lower than the 244-million-barrel decline under Biden, but the trend is still concerning. As under Biden, conflict and steeply higher oil costs were the main drivers. The difference: Biden's term saw Russia's invasion of Ukraine; Trump's term saw a US-led war with Iran.

Could Venezuelan crude replenish the SPR?

Trump stated on Friday that the US had obtained a 25-year deal granting a US-supported venture 55% ownership of 17 Venezuelan oil fields with over 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. He claimed the oil would assist in "fill up" the SPR, calling it a gift from Venezuela to Americans.

The announcement came after a January 2026 deal where Venezuela's interim government agreed to transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US at market rates after Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces.

Relying on Venezuelan oil to refill the SPR is not that simple.

1. A significant portion of Venezuelan crude might not satisfy SPR requirements.

   The SPR typically rejects heavy crude under 22.3 degrees API gravity. A lot of Venezuela's output, especially from the Orinoco Belt, is extra-heavy with high sulfur content. It cannot be injected directly into salt caverns built for light and medium crude.

   After blending or upgrading, some Venezuelan oil could qualify, but the Department of Energy has the authority to reject crude that fails its specifications.

2. Proven reserves are not barrels ready for immediate use.

   The estimated 65 billion barrels are oil that remains underground. They are not stored in tanks or waiting on ships.

   Output must be raised first, then the oil must be processed, moved and shipped. Holding reserves on paper is unlike having oil ready to refill the SPR.

3. Major investment is necessary.

   Venezuela's oil sector has been plagued by years of insufficient investment, poor management and sanctions. Boosting production would need large investments in wells, pipelines, upgraders and export infrastructure.

   Heavy crude usually has to be diluted or upgraded for conventional transport and refining. Creating that capacity would take substantial funds and years—not something that can occur "very shortly."

4. Legal and sovereignty issues persist.

   Venezuela's constitution grants the state control over its petroleum resources. A reform of hydrocarbons law in January 2026 allowed more private involvement, but the exact legal framework of the new deal is still unclear.

   Doubts may arise over sovereignty, contractual rights and whether the interim government has the power to sign such a broad, long-term pact.

In summary, Venezuelan oil could eventually help the SPR, especially if lighter crude is accessible or heavier types are blended correctly. The earlier announced transfer of 30 million to 50 million barrels is also more feasible than filling the whole reserve. That is not a large amount.

But the idea that Venezuelan oil could swiftly "top off" the SPR ignores the quality mismatch, infrastructure constraints and years of funding needed. At this point, that assertion reads more as political rhetoric than a viable short-term strategy.

What became of the "drill, baby, drill" approach?

And what about drilling more at home? Could domestic output refill the SPR?

US crude output is at all-time highs and still climbing.

• In 2024, production averaged about 13.2 million bpd, a record then.
• In 2025, output rose to a new record of about 13.6 million bpd, an increase of roughly 350,000 bpd, or 3%.
• For 2026, the EIA forecasts average production of about 13.8 million bpd, with Q4 output near 14 million bpd.
• For 2027, longer-term EIA estimates put production at about 14.2 million bpd.

Several key caveats apply.

The rise is an extension of a prior trend, not a sudden shift starting with the Trump administration. US output went from about 11.3 million bpd in 2021 to 13.2 million bpd in 2024.

Furthermore, the growth is not due to a big jump in drilling. Active rigs dropped by about 5% in 2025, and wells drilled fell by roughly 1%. Output still grew as firms kept boosting efficiency and getting more oil per well.

A large part of that increase came from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which made up about 48% of total US output in 2025.

The US continues to be the top oil producer globally. Output is still rising under Trump, but mainly due to ongoing shale productivity gains—not a dramatic new drilling surge.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?

The US does not import a huge volume of oil directly through the Strait of Hormuz. However, oil is traded globally. When the strait's closure cuts global supply, world oil prices climb, including what US consumers pay.

Higher prices help US oil producers by raising the value of each barrel they pump and sell. Consumers, on the other hand, pay more for gasoline, diesel, flights and other items impacted by transport and energy costs.

That is why the administration used the SPR: not because the US was suddenly short of domestic oil, but to boost available supply and curb the global price spike.

Oil firms saw profits jump after the war started.

• Exxon posted $14.5 billion in earnings, more than double its year-ago profit and its best quarter since the 2022 oil spike after Russia's Ukraine invasion. That is roughly $160 million daily profit.
• Chevron earned $12.1 billion, its highest quarterly profit ever, over four times the $2.5 billion from a year earlier.
• Shell made almost $10 billion, its second-largest quarterly profit on record.

Brent crude averaged around $104 per barrel in the quarter, a 53% rise from $68 a year ago. Along with higher production earnings, refining margins widened sharply as world fuel stockpiles tightened.

Chevron's downstream earnings jumped from $737 million to $4.9 billion. Its US output also hit a record 2.08 million bpd.

The firms were pumping more crude, but the main lift came from the steep rise in the price per barrel.

Summarising the situation:

• Under Biden, the SPR fell by about 244 million barrels, from 638 million to roughly 394 million. This was mainly due to the oil price spike after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• Since Trump's return, the SPR has dropped by about 107 million barrels, from 394 million to 286.6 million. His administration approved another big release after the Strait of Hormuz closure and the oil price surge linked to the US-led war.
• US oil production rose from about 11.26 million bpd to 13.21 million during Biden's presidency, an increase of 1.95 million bpd, or roughly 17%.
• Output is expected to near 13.97 million bpd by late 2026. That would be a gain of about 760,000 bpd, or 5.75%, from the start of Trump's current term.
• Shutting the Strait of Hormuz does not significantly cut direct oil supply to the US, but it reduces global supply and pushes up the world price.
• US producers have gained from higher oil prices, with profits spiking in Q2.
• US consumers have shouldered much of the burden. Gas prices averaged $2.98 to $4.08 per gallon, an increase of nearly 37%.
• Venezuelan crude could eventually help refill the SPR, but fully restoring the reserve would need compatible oil, large investment, and significant time.

The conflict persists. The SPR is at its lowest in over 40 years. Oil companies are reporting huge profits, and consumers are paying much more for fuel.

Biden still receives a lot of the criticism, but the data point to a more complex picture: two administrations, two conflicts, and two record drawdowns from a reserve that is growing harder and costlier to replenish. No quick fixes are on the horizon.