Starship flight success brings $900 SpaceX target into view, Citi says

Citi's long-term price target values the company at roughly $12 trillion, while its current market cap is about $2 trillion — a clear sign the bullish case depends on many years of fast expansion and perfect execution. Near-term targets from Citi, UBS and RBC are in the $200 to $225 range, so Tuesday's share-price increase indicates that investors view the launch as a confidence booster rather than an independent revaluation. Deutsche Bank's concerns about technical problems form the main downside risk, because any hold-up in resolving engine issues could delay the reuse and launch-frequency targets that support the forecasts. The next Starship flight, and whether SpaceX will try to catch the booster, will be the next gauge of sentiment.

This story is based on a report by Dow Jones MarketWatch.

Citi says that a successful Starship mission brings SpaceX a step nearer to its long-term target of $900, but this assessment hinges on several years of rapid expansion and unresolved engine issues.

Summary:

• On Monday, Starship's 14th flight placed 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, the rocket's first revenue-generating mission and its first orbital achievement, even with a faulty engine.
• According to Citi, this flight moves SpaceX shares (SPCX) closer to a value of $900 or more, implying a company valuation of about $12 trillion versus the current $2 trillion market cap.
• Citi sets a year-end target of $200, RBC's target is $225, and UBS rates the stock a buy with a $210 target.
• Citi projects 2030 revenue of roughly $485 billion and EBITDA of about $360 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $410 billion and $310 billion, and about $1 trillion in revenue for 2031.
• SpaceX shares increased by about 2.5% on Tuesday.
• UBS anticipates at least one additional Starship launch this year and expects SpaceX to attempt a catch on the next mission, whereas Deutsche Bank says the company must investigate booster engine problems and the early shutdown of a Raptor vacuum engine.

Citi, citing MarketWatch, asserts that the 14th successful Starship flight pushes SpaceX shares toward the $900 mark or higher. That valuation would give the company a market cap of about $12 trillion, more than double Nvidia's current size, versus SpaceX's present $2 trillion valuation. Shares (SPCX) climbed roughly 2.5% on Tuesday.

On Monday, SpaceX launched Starship for the first time since July, and despite a defective engine, the rocket achieved orbit for the first time. It carried 26 Starlink V3 satellites, marking Starship's first revenue-generating mission and what the report terms SpaceX's first meaningful payload. Citi described the mission as a major milestone, stating that the company's launch capability is the fundamental competitive advantage that supports its other businesses. The bank also noted that the flight moves SpaceX closer to fully valuing its artificial-intelligence and connectivity units, which are key to both its $900 long-term target and the $200 year-end target.

This long-term outlook presupposes extremely rapid expansion. FactSet data shows that Wall Street expects SpaceX to post roughly $44 billion in sales by 2026 and about $21 billion in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, a profit measure that excludes certain costs). Citi's estimates for 2030 are about $485 billion in revenue and $360 billion in EBITDA, above the consensus of $410 billion and $310 billion. For 2031, the bank forecasts approximately $1 trillion in revenue, matching a prediction by CEO Elon Musk. Starship itself will not account for most of that revenue but is expected to make it possible, given its ability to carry numerous advanced Starlink and AI satellites, and SpaceX's plan to conduct thousands of launches annually from a proposed Louisiana spaceport.

Other financial institutions also expressed optimism. RBC stated the launch should be viewed as positive for the stock and maintains a $225 target. UBS rates SpaceX a buy with a $210 target and predicts at least one more Starship flight this year. The firm expects SpaceX to try catching the vehicle on the next mission with the launch tower's chopstick arms, a crucial step for rapid reusability, and says that, along with the Louisiana spaceport, this could lead to a consistent launch rhythm by 2027.

Deutsche Bank adopted a more cautious stance. The bank said SpaceX needs to determine the causes of the booster's engine problems and the early shutdown of a Raptor vacuum engine, an issue that almost forced the company to scrap its orbital plan.

The upcoming Starship flight, along with whether SpaceX tries a catch, will serve as the next indicator of whether the launch frequency assumed in these projections is feasible.