STRC must reclaim $100 for Strategy to resume bitcoin buying

What's happening now

No bitcoin purchases were made by Strategy during the October 19–25 week. The company, which holds more bitcoin than any other corporation, instead used $204.9 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred stock, an October 26 SEC filing shows.

Those repurchases have pushed STRC to roughly $99.36, a high not seen in about five months and only a step below its $100 par value. On social media, the obvious conclusion has taken hold: once STRC touches $100, Michael Saylor is "set to resume heavy Bitcoin buying".

The idea is grounded in an actual, publicly stated plan. Whether the buying turns out to be "heavy" is another matter, and clarity could arrive shortly. Third-quarter numbers come out after Thursday's close on October 29, followed by a webinar at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

What STRC is and the role of $100

Known by the nickname Stretch, STRC is a perpetual preferred share carrying a variable dividend paid every month. Strategy adjusts that rate to hold the price close to its $100 par, and during the summer weakness it lifted the rate to 12%.

The par level is significant because the company has stated it will not market new STRC underneath it. Once above that mark, STRC turns back into a source of capital: shares can be sold into the market, with the proceeds going into bitcoin. Roughly $17.5 billion of STRC remains available under its at-the-market (ATM) programme, a number that weekly filings have left untouched since at least June.

Company leaders have made the connection openly. On Bloomberg TV, chief executive Phong Le said on July 14 that further STRC issuance and bitcoin purchases would follow once the shares return to par. The social media claim therefore states a real condition — one that has been on record for some time.

Bitcoin purchases versus share buybacks

Where the money is flowing shows up in the latest filings, newest first:

For every $1 put into bitcoin across those two weeks, around $18 went into its own preferred shares. The intervening week saw 267 BTC acquired for $22.1 million. Its total stash of 848,517 BTC, bought at an average of roughly $75,446 per coin, remains intact, meaning the shift is in the pace of fresh purchases rather than any abandonment of the holding.

Traders in bitcoin care about this flow. As the market's most consistent corporate purchaser, Strategy's absence for a week takes away a well-known buyer. On October 27, bitcoin fell under $80,000, with TradingKey analysts citing both spot ETF outflows and the Strategy pause, although one week alone does not establish a causal link.

Approaching par is not the same as par holding firm

The "heavy buying" narrative carries a wrinkle. A large part of STRC's rebound is the company buying its own stock. The most recent repurchases averaged about $99.06 a share, roughly the level of the five-month peak.

Backing the price does not come free. Following the buybacks last week, the company's USD Cash balance was $242.4 million, apart from a $4.83 billion USD Reserve earmarked for preferred dividends and debt interest. On October 19, the board increased the preferred buyback authorisation from $2 billion to $3 billion, with roughly $957 million still available.

The true test arrives at $100. New STRC must be sold to outside investors to generate money for bitcoin. Should demand at the existing dividend prove weaker than expected, additional issuance could knock the price under par and return Strategy to self-buying. Saylor's unofficial target of reaching par by September 8 has already passed, a sign that the final few dollars are the toughest.

The signals to watch for

• The earnings call this evening. Watch for any word on the STRC dividend rate, the buyback budget, or when STRC sales might resume. A concrete timeline would beat another round of "once we get to par".
• STRC at $100 on its own. The more meaningful sign would be STRC staying at or above par during weeks without company buybacks. Support from the issuer says little about outside appetite.
• The Monday reporting. Strategy files every week; the number to watch is STRC shares sold under the ATM. As long as that figure is zero, the main funding route remains closed, regardless of the headlines.
• Bitcoin acquisition size. Purchases financed purely through common stock have lately been in the tens of millions per week. Heavy buying by Strategy's own historical standards would look far larger.

The outlook would shift on confirmation of STRC issuance at par, paired with meaningful bitcoin purchases in the same filing. Until that appears, $100 is best seen as a door left ajar, not one the company has stepped through.

For bitcoin traders, the immediate lesson is simple: Strategy's weekly filing ranks among the market's clearest indicators of demand. Better to weigh it next to ETF flows than to trust social media predictions about what the filing will contain.