Three Major Market Tests Await Bitcoin in Early November

Three major market tests await Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets in the days ahead. A new Congress will be chosen by American voters, rate decisions come from three central banks, and the October employment data is released on Friday.

Trading kicks off a new week with markets on the mend. The largest hack in history, a $6.3 billion incident at Binance, sent Bitcoin to a level not seen in six weeks last Friday.

Tuesday's US Vote Fuels Bitcoin's Hopes for $100,000

US voters on Tuesday, November 3, choose all 435 House members and 35 Senators.

A Bloomberg poll of 301 market participants showed 29% forecasting Bitcoin above $100,000 by the close of the year under Republican control. That forecast falls to just 8% if the Democrats prevail.

If the Democrats win control, 71% of those surveyed see Bitcoin ending 2026 lower, as reported by BeInCrypto. The survey was opt-in and unweighted by Bloomberg.

Historical midterm data provides a longer time frame. Data from DWF Labs shows Bitcoin climbing 25%, 45% and 92% in the twelve months that followed the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections. Still, it traded 31% and 46% lower three months out from the 2014 and 2018 votes.

3 midterms. 3 green years for BTC.

+25%, +45%, +92% twelve months after the vote.

However, the path wasn't smooth. In 2014 and 2018, BTC was down 31% and 46% three months in.

Year three of a presidential term has historically been the best for stocks: S&P median +18.9%, up 17…

— DWF Labs (@DWFLabs) October 30, 2026

Tuesday also marks the first of three central bank meetings abroad.

Central Banks in Three Countries Issue Rate Decisions

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its verdict. A rise to 4.85% from 4.60% is widely anticipated among economists.

Sweden's Riksbank announces its decision a day later. Goldman Sachs and ING forecast a quarter-point move that would set the rate at 2.00%.

Thursday brings the Bank of England (BoE) decision. According to a Reuters poll of economists, a hike from 3.75% to 4.0% is expected, its first increase since August 2023.

UK inflation hit 3.5% in the year to September, pushed higher by energy costs and comfortably exceeding the BoE's 3.0% projection.

The central bank could still push back against market pricing that anticipates three or four additional rate increases in 2027.

“While we don’t expect a clear steer from the Committee on how many hikes they’re planning, it’s possible that the meeting minutes or Bailey … signal that Bank Rate is unlikely to reach the level that is priced in by financial markets,” Alexander Harvey, UK economist at Oxford Economics, told Reuters.

These decisions extend the tightening witnessed last week. The Bank of Canada pushed rates up on October 28, pointing to elevated oil prices. On the same day, the Federal Reserve stood pat, though two voting members dissented in favor of a hike.

Rising borrowing costs raise the appeal of cash and fixed income instruments, potentially drawing capital away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Jobs Data Tops Heavy Slate of US Reports This Week

CME FedWatch data puts the probability of a Federal Reserve rate move on December 9 at 73.8%. The data arriving this week will provide the initial test of that wager.

Two business surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are due this week. Monday's manufacturing index is forecast at 54.7, a slight uptick from 54.5 in September.

The heaviest item is Friday's October jobs report. A Dow Jones poll of economists, cited by CNBC, points to 55,000 new jobs being added. September's figure was 29,000 according to the BLS, well short of the 90,000 that was forecast.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to payroll shocks is well documented. A surprise in August, where payroll gains almost trebled estimates, triggered a 1.8% drop from Bitcoin's pre-release value in a matter of minutes.

The next piece of the puzzle for the Fed arrives the following week on November 10, when October inflation figures are published.