Three US Events That Could Sway Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) has three US events ahead this week that may determine whether the current downturn continues. Consumer inflation data is due Tuesday, AI chip earnings follow on Thursday, and producer prices come out on Friday.

The leading digital asset was trading at $74,322, having dropped 1.85% in the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets. Should inflation come in higher than expected, it could strengthen the case for a December rate hike by the Fed — a scenario that has previously pressured Bitcoin.

Will the October US CPI Report Lock In a December Rate Hike?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release October Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists project that annual inflation will rise to 3.9% from September's 3.7%, the Associated Press (AP) reported. AP also noted that inflation has remained above 3% every month since March.

The data arrives while the Federal Reserve is already tightening. It raised rates in September for the first time in three years, then held the target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28.

Friday's robust jobs report lifted the odds of a December hike. The CME FedWatch tool now shows an 80.5% probability of a quarter-point increase on December 9, up from 70.7% a week earlier.

A CPI print of 3.9% or higher would give the Fed little reason to ease off. However, rate expectations only partly explain the downward pressure on Bitcoin; tech stocks have also pulled it lower, and AI earnings are due later in the week.

Can Cisco and Applied Materials Earnings Calm AI Spending Fears?

The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory on November 5, falling 5.52% as chip stocks led the decline.

AI cloud provider CoreWeave reports first, after Tuesday's close. Options traders had priced a 20.7% earnings swing in the stock ahead of the release.

Cisco will release its fiscal first-quarter results after the market closes on November 12, the company said. In August, Cisco guided for quarterly revenue between $18 billion and $18.2 billion, according to its filing.

Applied Materials reports on the same afternoon, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET, per its announcement. The chip equipment maker guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million.

In August, Applied Materials CEO Gary Dickerson attributed a record quarter to strong global AI adoption. If either company delivers weak guidance, it could reignite concerns about AI spending that fueled last week's selloff.

Inflation returns to the spotlight on Friday, when wholesale prices offer a second reading on cost pressures.

Could Producer Prices Confirm What CPI Shows?

The BLS will publish the October Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

PPI measures what producers charge for goods and services. Higher input costs can eventually trickle down to consumer prices.

Economists expect October's PPI to show little change from September, according to AP. September's PPI recorded its largest monthly gain since March 2022, driven by a 20.3% jump in wholesale gasoline.

The previous two rounds of these reports provide a clue as to how Bitcoin might react this week.

Can Bitcoin Absorb Another Hot Print From a Weaker Starting Point?

Bitcoin declined after both hot CPI and PPI readings in September and October.

The sharpest drop came in October, when annual inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 3.7%. BTC fell toward $80,000, losing 3.3% in 24 hours. It slipped below that level the next day as hot PPI data added to the selling pressure.

This week, BTC begins from a weaker position. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $1.28 billion in net outflows last week. A wave of forced selling then liquidated $855.69 million in positions on Sunday.

BTC is also trading below $75,700, the average price paid by recent buyers, per Glassnode. Regaining that level would reduce the pressure, while $70,000 represents the next key downside support.

A softer inflation print could change that outlook. A cooler July report lifted Bitcoin about 3%, to near $64,500.

The Fed meets December 8 to 9 and will release updated rate projections. This week's data will feed into that decision and help determine whether Bitcoin holds above $70,000.