Trump nears major decision on Iran war, tells Axios

The oil market, already uncertain about the war's direction, faces more ambiguity after Trump's comments to Axios. JP Morgan acknowledged this week it lacks a clear baseline for crude prices. A return to major US combat operations against Iran would heighten the risk of strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping — the scenario that Saudi Arabia and Qatar reportedly raised when they convinced Trump to pause in August. On the other hand, if Tuesday's meeting with Gulf leaders points toward renewed diplomacy, some of the risk premium in oil prices could diminish, though traders see that as unlikely given Trump's repeated threats in recent months. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the larger US naval presence, remains below pre-war levels, and any escalation risk props up prices even as the market focuses more on demand destruction than supply fears.

Adam previously reported on this: Trump says he faces a "big decision" on whether to launch new attacks on Iran.

This article is an ICYMI update.

Related stories:

• A further tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's missile threat broadens the war
• JP Morgan sees oil market lacking a clear endgame six months into the Iran war

Trump indicates a major decision is approaching on a return to war with Iran, according to Axios.

Key points:

• In an Axios interview, Trump said he is approaching a major decision on resuming large-scale attacks on Iran, describing it as a genuine turning point.
• The remarks precede a scheduled Tuesday meeting with leaders from six Gulf nations — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
• Trump paused major combat operations in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar cautioned that Iran could strike Saudi oil and gas facilities. Since then, the US has adopted a lower-key approach involving sanctions, a naval blockade, and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• US officials say Trump must decide quickly because the military cannot sustain its current holding pattern indefinitely, with Middle East force levels scheduled to stay through year-end.
• Trump stated that the naval blockade has halted Iran's oil exports and that Iran remains in direct contact with Washington and still seeks a deal.
• Separately, the White House is drafting a post-war strategy to contain Iran and expand Israeli-Arab normalization, with Israel's October 27 election and the US midterms in November both influencing the timeline.

President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he is at a critical juncture in the Iran war, considering whether to resume large-scale attacks to try to end the conflict. He described the choice starkly: "Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" adding that it is a major decision and that anything could happen.

The remarks precede a planned Tuesday meeting with leaders from six Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Axios reported that the meeting could determine the next phase of the war, including whether Washington pushes for renewed diplomacy or escalates military action, and that Trump would need regional allies' buy-in before resuming major combat. Trump said he wants to use the gathering to hear directly from allies about the war's next steps, and he declined to say whether he would decide before or after the November midterm elections.

Axios noted that Trump paused major combat in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar expressed concerns that Iran would retaliate by striking Saudi oil and gas facilities. Since then, the US has followed what the outlet called a lower-key approach, suspending negotiations with Iran, launching a new sanctions campaign, maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and focusing the military on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and boosting oil flows. Tanker traffic through the strait has increased under the US presence but is still below pre-war levels, and oil prices remain high.

US officials told Axios that Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have ordered the military to maintain current force levels in the Middle East through year-end, keeping options open for a full return to combat, and that a decision is needed soon because the military cannot sustain its present holding pattern indefinitely. Trump said he is satisfied that the naval blockade has stopped Iran from exporting oil, and that Iran remains in direct contact with Washington and still wants a deal.

Separately, Axios reported that the White House is drafting a post-war strategy to contain Iran regionally while expanding normalization between Israel and its neighbors. The plan, still in its early stages, is intended to guide US Middle East policy for the rest of Trump's term. Israel's October 27 election and the US midterms in November both cast a shadow over that planning. When asked whether he would meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York next week, Trump left the possibility open, saying only that he might.