Trump Refuses Iran Truce, Plans Strikes After US Midterms

US President Donald Trump has rejected a seven-day ceasefire proposal from Iran. According to US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, he has informed aides that he anticipates renewing bombing operations against Iran once the November midterm elections are over.

The report emerged over the weekend, when stock markets were not open. Oil markets similarly remain closed until Sunday evening US time. As a result, Bitcoin, which trades 24/7, will be the first asset to respond.

What Iran Offered and Why Trump Said No

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the plan at the UN General Assembly on Thursday. The proposal was conveyed to Washington by Qatar.

Under the proposal, fighting would halt across all fronts, including Lebanon. The US would be required to remove its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease oil sanctions. Iran would also regain access to some frozen assets.

In exchange, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the primary route for Gulf oil and gas exports. Nuclear negotiations would then resume.

“The moment they accept this plan, from the next day, this timetable can start, and after seven days, the strait will be open,” Aljazeera reported, citing Araghchi.

Washington declined the offer. Officials told the Journal that Trump is skeptical Iran will meet his conditions. The US has also informed Iran that the blockade remains in place. According to the Journal, the blockade is inflicting significant damage on Iran's economy.

The proposal closely resembles a deal from June 17. That ceasefire temporarily halted the conflict before it collapsed.

Trump Told the UN the Election Would Not Shape His Iran Policy

Four days before the report surfaced, Trump addressed world leaders at the UN and downplayed the significance of the midterms.

“I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran. It doesn’t even enter my mind,” Trump said.

During the same address, he accused Iran of dragging out talks to see how he performs at the polls. He also stated that he must choose between reaching a deal or taking swift action to “annihilate” the Islamic Republic.

Privately, officials report that Trump sees a new bombing campaign after the election as probable. Publicly, he asserts that Tehran will be pleading for a deal that dismantles its nuclear program once the midterms are over.

His position could still change as the war continues and after the election results are known. The vote takes place on November 3, a mere 38 days away.

Will Oil and Bitcoin Hold After Trump’s Iran Decision?

When US strikes previously resumed on July 8, Brent crude surged over 3% to $76.48 a barrel. Brent is the global oil benchmark.

Oil is now considerably more expensive. Brent closed Friday at $104.32, according to Trading Economics. That represents a rise of roughly 36% compared to its level on the day strikes resumed in July. It currently trades at $101.86.

Brent contracts fell 1.15% during Friday's session to $95.95. Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $84,000 right after the news broke.

The larger decline occurred earlier in the week. Bitcoin dropped from above $87,000 on Wednesday to approximately $83,250 on Thursday, and it has stayed just above that level since.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin gained on peace signals. It rose past $81,000 when Trump considered ending the war.

On Friday, Iran stated it is still awaiting a formal response from the US. Negotiations via regional intermediaries have not concluded. The midterms, after which Trump reportedly expects to resume bombing, are five weeks away.