Trump rules out Iran attack ahead of November 3 elections

President Trump said in a Truth Social post:

• The U.S. is engaged in productive talks with Iran and will not attack before the November 3 midterm elections.

Trump also stated that the blockade will stay in full effect and reiterated that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon. He claimed that 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz overnight, with none originating from or heading to Iran.

For oil traders, this promise has reduced worries of a quick strike and has lowered the geopolitical risk premium. However, the blockade remains a point of tension.

Nevertheless, oil prices have fallen away from the swing area between $92.29 and $93.48. Traders who bet against that area now target the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages, which lie between $90.90 and $89.91. The low has reached $90.26, between those two MAs. Traders now face a decision:

• Take profits or buy at current levels, aiming for a recovery above the 200-hour moving average.
• Look for a break below the 100-hour moving average, targeting the 50% retracement level and then the 100-day moving average.