Trump Ties Falling Oil to Post-Midterm Iran Peace, Brent Hits $103

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump stated that a decline in oil prices will not happen until after the November midterm elections. He linked relief at the gasoline pump to an Iran conflict he expects Tehran to abandon once Americans head to the polls.

The global benchmark Brent crude rose 3.78%, reaching $103 on the same day. This marks its highest level since May, following renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil Sets the Political Clock

Ahead of a flight to a Republican convention in Dallas, Trump told reporters he believes Iran is prolonging the conflict to weaken his party in the midterms, the congressional elections that take place midway through a presidential term.

“I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” he said.

He further argued that Tehran is nearing collapse and would seek to end the war right after the vote. No official from Iran has proposed any such timeline. The conflict is now in its seventh month.

President Donald Trump says the war in Iran will end after the November midterm elections, and that significant gasoline price relief won't come before then https://t.co/axw1jf2F1E pic.twitter.com/BKkVS9xTWV

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 9, 2026

A day earlier, BeInCrypto reported that Goldman Sachs forecast $120 oil as Trump moved away from diplomatic efforts. Wednesday's remarks reinforced that analysis.

“Bookmark this lie…Why should Americans pay the price for the wars of the Israeli regime?” the Consulate General of the Islamic Republic of Iran wrote in a post, responding to Trump putting a political clock on oil prices.

Pump Prices and Crypto Feel the Squeeze

The American Automobile Association (AAA) reported the national average gasoline price at $4.22 per gallon on Wednesday. A month ago, drivers were paying $4.01.

I HOPE PEOPLE ARE SMART ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW THE PRICE OF GASOLINE TO SWAY THERE VOTE BETWEEN FREEDOM & MARXISM pic.twitter.com/NHB23rYNsW

— DAWGTURD🌟 (@Christo23674916) September 9, 2026

Traders are currently applying a double pricing of the same war, once in oil and once in risk assets. Crypto bettors assign Democrats 51% odds of winning control of Congress, with record pump prices cited as a factor.

Republicans currently hold both chambers of Congress. Elections are scheduled for November 3.

History Says Wars Move Oil, Not Voters

Despite Trump's comments, historical data offers little support for his timeline. Crude has dropped after a midterm before, but never due to a change in congressional control.

Oil rose from $17 per barrel in July 1990 to about $46 by mid-October. Prices then declined as coalition forces gained ground against Iraq and supply fears diminished. The resolution of the war drove the market, not the November election.

Academic research points to a reverse causal relationship. A World Bank study of 207 elections across 50 democracies found that a 1% oil shock reduces an incumbent's re-election chances by 5.9 percentage points. Higher prices squeeze household spending, and voters penalize whoever is in power.

“Trump’s latest lie is that the war will end immediately after the elections. The spin is that Iran is only holding out to influence the outcome of the election. It’s a very convenient take, as it lets Republicans off the hook, assuming voters are dumb enough to buy the excuse,” Peter Schiff challenged.

This makes the midterms much more likely to be a result of $100 oil than a remedy for it. Whether Brent falls in November hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and voters have no influence over that.