Trump U-turns twice on Houthi strikes after Saudi crown prince's call

The on-off signal is itself a market consideration, as it demonstrates that US policy, or at least Trump's stance, toward the Houthis can shift abruptly and leaves the door open for another reversal. For now, the absence of strikes means the Houthi danger to the Red Sea and Saudi export routes persists, which helps sustain an energy risk premium, with the Bab al-Mandab serving as a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz. Strikes would carry their own risks, as one official noted the Houthis would likely resume targeting US vessels if a campaign were relaunched. Shipping and insurance costs would be the first area where either scenario becomes visible, and traders will treat any new Pentagon or White House leak as a headline risk.

Trump has reversed course twice on Houthi strikes, first authorizing preparations after a conversation with Saudi Arabia's crown prince and then, by midday Sunday, calling them off for now.

• The New York Times reports Trump told advisers he was not in favor of striking the Houthis, then changed his mind after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and instructed the Pentagon to ready airstrikes.
• By midday Sunday he appeared to reverse once more, and administration officials indicated there would be no US airstrikes for the moment.
• Riyadh has urged Washington to carry out strikes as the Houthis moved toward the Bab al-Mandab and launched a ballistic missile at the Saudi capital.
• Earlier reports said Trump turned down those requests while providing intelligence and targeting data, with about 200 US personnel in Saudi Arabia in non-combat roles, and that his instruction was to keep US forces focused on Iran and Hormuz.
• Current and former US officials doubt a limited bombing campaign would compel the Houthis to negotiate, and one warned they would likely resume firing on US ships if strikes restarted.
• The Houthis have restored much of their capability since last year's ceasefire and are employing artificial intelligence to develop new missiles, according to officials.

President Donald Trump has changed his position twice on whether the United States should strike the Houthis in Yemen, according to the New York Times. The newspaper reported that Trump met with advisers and said he was not in favor of strikes, but after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman he reversed direction and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes. By midday Sunday, he appeared to have reversed again, and administration officials said there would be no US airstrikes against the Houthis, at least for the time being.

The reversal follows weeks of pressure from Riyadh. Axios and CBS News reported that the crown prince spoke with Trump twice and asked for direct US action as the Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha and advanced toward the Bab al-Mandab. Trump declined the request at that point, and US officials said the administration did not plan to take direct military action, according to Axios. Instead, Washington has been providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence and targeting data, and roughly 200 US personnel are in the country in non-combat roles. US officials also told Saudi counterparts that Trump's directive was to keep American forces focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and avoid starting another front. Riyadh's position has shifted since July, when it informed Washington it could handle the Houthis alone.

The pressure increased after the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh, which Saudi forces intercepted, and claimed attacks on sensitive sites in the capital.

The New York Times separately reported that current and former US diplomats and commanders doubt a limited bombing campaign would push the Houthis to negotiate. The group withstood nearly eight weeks of US strikes last year, and the officials said it has since rebuilt much of its capability and is using artificial intelligence to develop new missiles. One official said the Houthis would likely resume firing on US ships if strikes restarted, and warned of further disruption to oil and gas transit through the Bab al-Mandab, with the Strait of Hormuz already unstable.

The reported sequence shows a decision that has shifted more than once, so a stand-down now does not represent a fixed policy. That matters for oil because the Bab al-Mandab and Red Sea routes underpin Saudi Arabia's workaround for its damaged East-West pipeline, and a sudden change in either direction would affect shipping risk.

Attention now turns to further Houthi advances, any renewed Pentagon preparations reported in the coming days, and the outcome of Chinese efforts to restrain the group.