Trump repeatedly urged Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian refineries, citing diesel prices, according to Axios; Zelensky expects a Tuesday meeting.
Diesel prices and refining margins are likely to move more than crude in response. If Kyiv agrees to a reported US request to curb Ukraine's refinery strikes, that would ease one threat to product supply, while ongoing attacks like Sunday's on a Moscow refinery keep the risk premium intact. That makes Tuesday's meeting a headline risk for the diesel complex, with the outcome depending on any signal from Kyiv about strike policy. Traders are unlikely to price in a change of course until Ukraine states it publicly, given that the request is based on a single unnamed source.
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Diesel was reportedly a frequent topic in Trump's call with Zelensky, as Kyiv's refinery campaign clashes with Washington's push to lower fuel prices and revive negotiations.
Summary:
President Donald Trump repeatedly pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries during a phone call on Sunday, according to a source familiar with the call cited by Axios. The source said the strikes are pushing up global diesel prices, and that the subject came up many times in the conversation.
Zelensky said after the call that the two leaders will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with the meeting expected on Tuesday. Writing on X, he called it an important conversation and said the meeting could change a lot, adding that there is diplomatic momentum and that Ukraine is ready to take serious steps toward a de-escalation deal with Russia. Rustem Umerov, Zelensky's chief negotiator and the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, told Axios he has spent recent days working with White House envoys to organize the meeting.
The meeting follows Trump's decision several days ago to sign a Russia sanctions bill and approve the largest US arms deal with Ukraine since he took office, two steps Kyiv had sought for months. The White House is working to broker an agreement under which Russia and Ukraine would take reciprocal steps to de-escalate and resume negotiations. Umerov said significant progress has been made, with the number of stumbling blocks cut from dozens to essentially one or two key issues, and described the trend as positive. He also called a Kyiv Independent report of growing Ukrainian frustration with US envoy Steve Witkoff false, saying he has worked with Witkoff and Trump adviser Jared Kushner daily for the past year.
Battlefield activity has moved in the opposite direction. Ukraine launched a missile attack on Moscow on Sunday and hit an oil refinery, while Russia has fired missiles at Kyiv and other major cities almost daily in recent weeks. Russia has signaled it is willing to consider de-escalation steps ahead of winter and a resumption of trilateral talks with the United States and Ukraine, although there has been little progress toward an actual deal.
For oil markets, the point to watch from Tuesday's meeting is whether Kyiv signals any change in its approach to refinery strikes. The account of Trump's request rests on one unnamed source, and neither government has publicly said whether Ukraine will alter its targeting.
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