NYSE veteran Peter Tuchman says oil, wars, Fed divisions and AI spending are all pressuring stocks, with crude's rise complicating the Fed's December call.
Crude above $100, a pair of wars, a divided Federal Reserve and questions about artificial-intelligence spending are all weighing on stocks at once. Peter Tuchman, a veteran floor trader at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), says he cannot tell which one of these forces will move the market next.
Friday brought a 1.8% decline for the S&P 500. CME FedWatch assigned 72% odds to a December rate increase, which would push up borrowing costs for listed companies.
Tuchman worked through the roster. He named oil, interest rates, the US-Iran standoff and the war between Russia and Ukraine, which he said has again become more aggressive.
He then cited AI spending, a trade he said has split into separate segments, from hyperscalers — the biggest cloud providers — to data-center builders.
Hedge funds are another moving piece. Many funds are ahead 10% to 15% this year, Tuchman said, and could exit positions in November to keep those gains.
At the time he spoke, Tuchman said, the S&P 500 was less than 2% beneath its record high.
“We’ve seen every possible thing happens in this market whether it’s tariffs whether it’s oil whether it’s a war whether it’s two wars right whether it’s the yield whether it’s bonds whether it’s AI…The market has so many moving parts,” the floor trader said.
Tuchman noted that crude rose around $40 a barrel after the US and Israel attacked Iran, with a peak near $120.
By his arithmetic, the $40 jump cut growth from 4.5% to a slow pace.
“…the inflationary implications of hundred-plus dollar a barrel oil are massive,” he said.
Apollo Global Management assesses the impact differently. A team led by chief economist Torsten Slok estimated in March that a sustained move to $100 oil subtracts about 0.1 percentage point from US growth.
The same model raises headline inflation by about 0.7 point. Apollo attributes the smaller growth impact to America’s status as a net oil exporter and to gains in energy efficiency.
On October 28, the Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% and described inflation in its statement as still elevated.
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, voting for a quarter-point rise. Tuchman also noted the leadership transition from Jerome Powell to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
“We switched Fed chairs… We’ve seen, uh, them go from an interest rate cutting cycle to an interest rate raising cycle. Caught everybody off guard,” Tuchman added.
The Nasdaq Composite wrapped up October down around 5.2%, its worst month since March 2025. Friday’s sell-off was tied by reports to climbing oil, weak tech earnings and bets on a December increase.
AI spending, Tuchman said, is also among the forces he cannot rank, a theme he has attached to the supply chain winners of AI.
The October jobs report comes out Friday. The Fed gets fresh data from it before December, after two officials cast votes for a hike in October.
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