US crude stockpiles rise 922,000 barrels, defying draw expectations

US petroleum inventories for the week ended September 25 showed mixed results, with an unexpected crude build alongside steeper-than-anticipated declines in gasoline and distillate supplies.

• Crude oil: +0.922 million barrels versus an expected decline of 0.264 million barrels. The prior week reported a build of 2.969 million barrels.
• Distillates: −2.251 million barrels versus an expected draw of 0.190 million barrels. The prior week showed a decline of 0.428 million barrels.
• Gasoline: −1.684 million barrels compared with an expected draw of 0.485 million barrels. The previous week recorded a drop of 1.686 million barrels.
• Cushing crude stocks: +0.555 million barrels, following a prior build of 2.266 million barrels.

The weekly figures from the US Energy Information Administration showed crude stocks rising by 922,000 barrels, contrary to market forecasts for a slight decrease. Inventories at Cushing also increased, though both builds were less pronounced than those seen in the prior week.

On the product side, supplies were tighter. Distillate inventories plunged by 2.251 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, while gasoline stocks dropped by 1.684 million barrels. These draws help offset the weaker headline crude result.

In a hastily drafted analysis, the unexpected crude build would typically pressure oil prices lower, but the larger product declines could mitigate that effect. Falling inventories of diesel, heating oil, and gasoline might support product prices, though inventory changes alone do not confirm stronger demand. For the Federal Reserve, the question is whether energy prices add to inflation pressures; a single weekly report is unlikely to shift the policy outlook.

Regarding what this report tracks, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report monitors US petroleum inventories, refinery operations, and supply flows. Traders compare weekly builds and draws against expectations to gauge supply balances. Cushing, Oklahoma, serves as the delivery hub for West Texas Intermediate crude futures.

The data compares with private estimates from yesterday.

Crude oil futures were trading at $91.25, up $1.85 on the day, after moving between a low of $88.58 and a high of $91.55.

On the hourly chart, overnight and intraday lows briefly dipped below support at $88.79, but neither break sustained downside momentum. Sellers had their chance below that level. The swift rebounds suggest buyers are defending the zone, establishing a floor near $88.80.

The rebound has pushed the price back toward the previously broken 38.2% retracement at $91.45. Although today's high briefly exceeded that level, buyers must break and hold above it to strengthen the bullish outlook. That would open the path toward the nearly converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $92.75, the next key test for buyers.

Conversely, a drop below $88.79–$88.80, followed by sustained trading beneath that level, would shift the bias back to sellers. The next downside target would be the 50% midpoint of the rally from the early July low at $86.79, then the 100-day moving average at $86.40.

For now, $88.80 below and $91.45 above are the critical boundaries. The brief breaks have failed to gain traction. Traders will watch for a sustained move outside that range to signal the next directional shift.

Key technical levels:

• $92.75: Nearly converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages.
• $91.45: 38.2% retracement and immediate resistance.
• $88.79–$88.80: Support floor tested yesterday and today.
• $86.79: 50% retracement of the rally from the early July low.
• $86.40: 100-day moving average.