US Flash PMIs for September Due; Traders Predict Modest Slowdown

On Wednesday, S&P Global is set to publish its flash September Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the US, compiled from surveys of top private-sector executives, giving an early read on economic momentum. The figures are expected to show continued US economic resilience.

Three indices make up the report: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI, a weighted average of the two. Readings above 50 signal expansion, below 50 contraction.

Published well ahead of most official data, these monthly reports analyze production, exports, capacity use, employment, and inventories, providing some of the earliest clues on the economy's trajectory.

What is Expected from the next S&P Global PMI Report?

For September's flash Manufacturing PMI, investors expect a dip from 53.9 to 53.5, while the Services PMI is forecast to edge down from 56.5 to 56.

A small drop may not unsettle markets, as US business activity remains firmly in expansion, reinforcing the narrative of US exceptionalism.

A big upside surprise in both readings would likely strengthen the US dollar, confirming a healthy economy and supporting the Fed's cautious, possibly hawkish, stance.

Release Time and Potential Impact on EUR/USD of September Flash US PMIs

The S&P Global figures for Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs are due at 13:45 GMT on Wednesday.

FXStreet Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano cautioned that further EUR/USD declines cannot be dismissed, especially after the pair broke below the critical 200-day SMA above 1.1620.

Should buyers regain control, initial resistance is seen at the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542, respectively, before the more significant 200-day SMA. Once that level is cleared, the next target is the August high of 1.1711 (August 21).

Conversely, sustained selling pressure finds initial support at the monthly low of 1.1353 (July 28), followed by the 2026 bottom of 1.1324 (June 24).

“Momentum indicators also favour extra declines as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 29 is indicative of a forceful trend,” Piovano adds.