US Money Supply Record Fails to Boost Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) lost value this week while US money supply reached a record $23.34 trillion in August. Backers of Bitcoin say its limited supply works as a hedge against that sort of expansion.

The Federal Reserve's M2 measure—a broad gauge of cash, deposits, and retail money funds—rose by about $125 billion in August. Despite that increase, Bitcoin's price moved in the opposite direction.

As US Money Supply Grows, Why Does Fixed Supply Matter?

According to Fed data, M2 came in at $23.34 trillion, a 5.7% year-over-year increase from August 2025. The Kobeissi Letter, a markets newsletter, described the pace as the strongest since May 2022.

Additional Fed data shows M2 climbed by roughly $988 billion between December and August, averaging about $123 billion per month.

BREAKING: US M2 money supply jumped +$113 billion in August, to a record $23.41 trillion. YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since May 2022. This also marks the 3rd consecutive month of accelerating growth. So far in 2026, M2 has risen by an average of +$136 billion…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 8, 2026

In August, the monetary base—encompassing currency and Fed bank reserves—fell by roughly $112 billion. The M1 measure, covering cash plus checking and savings deposits, accounted for about $105 billion of the M2 growth.

The central bank is tracking the aggregate. The first monetary policy report under Chair Kevin Warsh incorporates money supply.

“I think money, strangely enough, has something to do with monetary policy.”

Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, in remarks at a Hoover Institution event last year.

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, a ceiling that no central bank can adjust. Its proponents promote that limited availability as a counterbalance to currency expansion.

If Money Supply Rises, Why Doesn't Bitcoin Rise?

Data from CoinGecko indicates that Bitcoin has actually fallen over the last week.

21Shares, a crypto asset manager, reports that a volatility squeeze that accumulated during October ended in a downward move. The company ties a partial November rebound to the return of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

The combined money supply of the four largest economies hit a record $103.66 trillion in August. Bitcoin’s increase lagged that, as bond yields rose.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, has advised traders to take long positions on Bitcoin. His argument depends on an expected bailout, valued in trillions, after the AI data center boom ends.

This split tests whether money supply growth still moves Bitcoin or whether ETF flows and yields have become more important. The return of ETF inflows would help clarify which interpretation is correct.