Morgan Stanley upgrades Brazil to overweight, predicts 10% further upside in equities and real
Morgan Stanley upgraded Brazil to overweight, forecasting 10% more gains in equities and the real by year-end.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on the last trading day of September; the Dow fell to its lowest level since June while the Nasdaq gained.
On the last trading day of September, U.S. equities ended mixed. The Nasdaq indexes posted small gains, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 declined.
The Dow slipped 441 points, closing at its lowest since early June. Just eight of the 30 components rose, with selling pressure widespread. Six of the Magnificent Seven stocks gained, lifting the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 into positive ground. Meta bucked the trend.
September's broader split was mirrored in the final session. Buyers focused on certain technology and semiconductor shares, while consumer, financial and industrial names lagged. The Nasdaq indexes ended the month up, but the Dow and Russell 2000 saw significant losses.
Closing levels for U.S. equities were:
Dow Industrial Average: fell 441.03 points, or 0.86%, to 50,914.09.
S&P 500: dropped 18.82 points, or 0.25%, to 7,652.03.
Nasdaq Composite: rose 63.52 points, or 0.24%, to 26,861.06.
Russell 2000: declined 11.04 points, or 0.39%, to 2,796.8779.
Nasdaq 100: advanced 69.17 points, or 0.23%, to 30,408.50.
September's performance showed technology leading, but breadth remained thin.
The monthly results were:
Dow Industrial Average: down 4.29%.
S&P 500: down 0.45%.
Nasdaq Composite: up 1.86%.
Russell 2000: down 5.39%.
Nasdaq 100: up 3.23%.
The Nasdaq 100 beat the Russell 2000 by 8.62 percentage points, a notable spread between large tech-focused firms and smaller U.S. companies.
The S&P 500's small monthly drop masks broader weakness. Gains in a handful of large stocks offset declines in others. In the Dow, just five of 30 components ended September up.
Magnificent Seven: daily and month-end results.
Apple posted the day's biggest rise among the group, with Amazon close behind. Meta declined, yet its 26.70% monthly gain far exceeded the rest of the Magnificent Seven.
Five of the seven gained over the month. Amazon and Tesla ended lower, indicating selective buying even within this closely tracked cohort.
Dow: only eight stocks rose on the day.
The advancing stocks were:
Salesforce: up 1.91%.
Apple: up 1.10%.
Amazon: up 1.01%.
Microsoft: up 0.77%.
Cisco: up 0.65%.
Nvidia: up 0.51%.
Honeywell: up 0.39%.
Chevron: up 0.04%.
Among the biggest decliners were Walmart (-2.70%), Merck (-2.61%), 3M (-2.53%), Sherwin-Williams (-2.12%), UnitedHealth (-2.05%) and Procter & Gamble (-2.01%). Caterpillar dropped 1.93%, Travelers fell 1.81%, Visa declined 1.78%, and Goldman Sachs was off 1.58%.
Selling spread across multiple sectors. The Dow experienced widespread weakness, though some technology names attracted bids.
Dow's best and worst performers for September.
Only five Dow stocks finished the month higher:
Apple: gained 5.10%.
Nvidia: gained 3.44%.
Caterpillar: gained 1.66%.
Microsoft: gained 1.11%.
Procter & Gamble: gained 0.15%.
The biggest monthly declines were:
Home Depot: fell 13.24%.
McDonald's: fell 12.33%.
Goldman Sachs: fell 12.10%.
Salesforce: fell 10.84%.
Boeing: fell 10.44%.
Nike: fell 9.40%.
Verizon: fell 8.24%.
American Express: fell 7.86%.
JPMorgan: fell 7.05%.
IBM: fell 5.95%.
Salesforce illustrates the gap between daily and monthly performance. It topped the Dow's gainers on the day, yet ended September down almost 11%.
Other notable monthly gainers and decliners.
Among other stocks, Moderna was the biggest gainer for the month, and several semiconductor and technology shares also rose sharply.
On the losing side were consumer firms, software shares, and other names with steep monthly drops.
Trading lesson: look beyond the index level.
A rising Nasdaq does not indicate a broad market advance. Large-cap stocks heavily influence market-cap-weighted indexes, so gains in a few names can mask declines elsewhere.
On Tuesday, six of the Magnificent Seven advanced, but 22 of the Dow's 30 stocks declined. Over September, the Nasdaq 100 added 3.23%, while only five Dow components rose.
The key takeaway is to monitor breadth alongside the headline index. Demand has been concentrated in certain technology names. A wider rally would need more stocks and sectors to participate.
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