Washington tells Americans to leave Iran as Trump weighs Tehran's war terms

Oil opened the week with a risk premium, moving sharply higher, before falling back. This latest advisory appears to reinforce the impression that Washington is bracing for a potential escalation, though similar warnings have been issued repeatedly and do not in themselves signal a decision.

The more significant factor for pricing is the binary choice Trump has laid out between military action, sustained economic sanctions or a negotiated settlement, placing the UN General Assembly week at the heart of oil and gas risks. A credible step toward diplomacy would reduce the premium, whereas a strike or renewed assault on Gulf infrastructure would widen it. The reference to airspace shutdowns is notable for regional aviation and shipping, which in turn affect fuel demand and transport costs.

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Washington has instructed Americans to depart Iran while Trump considers Tehran's proposals for ending the conflict, and his response at the UN this week will shape oil markets.

Summary:

• The US Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a security alert advising Americans against any travel to Iran and urging those already there to leave immediately, citing the risk of flight cancellations, airspace closures and other travel disruptions.
• That alert follows a separate State Department notice on Saturday urging Americans in the Middle East to stay vigilant and prepare for possible travel interruptions after fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
• On Saturday Iran said it had sent conditions to Washington via Qatar for ending the war, including a halt to hostilities on all fronts, the unfreezing of assets and the lifting of the US naval blockade, and is waiting for Trump's answer.
• Trump cut short his Camp David visit on Saturday and said he is in a deciding mode on military action, continued economic pressure or a deal. He also told Fox News that very big things could happen soon.
• US Central Command said it has redirected more than 100 vessels as it strengthened the blockade of Iranian ports.
• Trump is scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly this week, where he intends to argue that Iran must be prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon, according to US Ambassador Mike Waltz.

The US Virtual Embassy in Iran has called on American citizens to leave the country without delay, warning of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures and other travel problems as tensions rise across the Middle East. The advisory, reported by ANI and Fox News, tells Americans not to visit Iran for any purpose and says those already there should depart now. The United States has no diplomatic or consular mission in Iran, with Swiss diplomats serving as its protecting power there.

The warning comes as President Donald Trump decides how to respond to conditions Iran says it has conveyed through Qatari mediators to end the war. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the terms call for a cessation of fighting on all fronts, the release of frozen Iranian funds and the end of the US naval blockade, and that Tehran is waiting for Trump's answer. Fox News reported that Iran laid out seven core demands. Trump returned to the White House on Saturday evening, earlier than scheduled, after leaving Camp David. He has described himself as being in a deciding mode, weighing military action, continued economic pressure or a deal, and told Fox News on Sunday that very big things could happen soon.

Military pressure continues alongside diplomacy. US Central Command said its naval forces have redirected more than 100 vessels as they tighten the blockade of Iranian ports. On Saturday, the State Department separately advised Americans in the Middle East to maintain heightened vigilance and prepare for possible travel disruptions, following new attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia, including a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh that Saudi forces intercepted. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has left for New York to attend the UN General Assembly, and Turkey said it is working with other countries on new proposals to bring the United States and Iran toward an agreement.

Trump is expected at the UN this week, and Waltz said he plans to use the speech to argue that Iran must be stopped from acquiring a nuclear weapon. President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington on Thursday adds to a crowded diplomatic schedule.

The Virtual Embassy has urged Americans to leave Iran multiple times this year, including during the January unrest and ahead of talks in Oman in February, so the wording itself is not a clear indication that action is imminent. What stands out is the timing, as it coincides with an unanswered Iranian offer, the tightened blockade and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The mention of airspace closures is the detail to watch.

Focus now shifts to Trump's reply to Iran's conditions, his UN address and whether talks via Qatar or Turkey gain momentum. Any strike, or new attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, would heighten the risk of further supply disruptions, while a move toward a deal would reduce it.