Week ahead: PMIs, RBA and BoE meetings, U.S. jobs data due Nov. 2-6

Manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. get the week under way on Monday, with Tuesday centering on the RBA's monetary policy decision.

Switzerland's inflation figures are due the same day, while U.S. attention turns to JOLTS job openings and the Congressional elections. New Zealand will also report employment change q/q along with its unemployment rate.

Services PMI numbers for the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. land on Wednesday, accompanied by the Eurozone's CPI flash estimate y/y and the ADP nonfarm employment change in the U.S.

Thursday sees Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes published, ahead of the BoE's policy announcement. Friday closes the week with Canada's employment change and unemployment rate, plus the U.S. release of average hourly earnings m/m, nonfarm employment change, the unemployment rate, the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment figure and the preliminary UoM inflation expectations figure.

A number of FOMC officials are scheduled to speak at various points during the week.

For the U.S., the ISM manufacturing PMI consensus stands at 54.5 versus 54.5 previously, and the ISM services PMI is seen at 54.9, matching the prior reading.

The latest numbers will be watched closely for additional evidence of inflation pressures coming from the recent climb in commodity prices, something that could feed into higher input costs.

Manufacturing and services are both forecast to stay in expansionary territory. On the manufacturing side, Wells Fargo analysts note that longer supplier delivery times have made a sizable contribution to the ISM movement over the past 5 months. Slower supplier deliveries tend to be read as a favorable signal because they point to stronger manufacturing activity and greater demand for input materials and components, which puts pressure on suppliers. The high-tech sector has accounted for much of the recent increase, although signs point to the pickup broadening into other sectors, with durable goods orders reflecting that.

Services, by contrast, are expected to show some softness, with the employment component likely to lose ground. New orders and business activity will be watched as signals of whether demand has started to cool. At its meeting this week, the RBA is seen raising rates by 25 bps, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%. Inflation stays a major worry in Australia, where price growth continues to exceed the Bank's target.

Elevated inflation is being driven in large part by higher energy prices, and the RBA worries that such pressures could become embedded in inflation expectations and affect how businesses set prices.

The Bank's recent statements have suggested policymakers are inclined toward a hike. Westpac analysts said a majority of external board members are also expected to back the move, though there may be some dissent.

New Zealand's employment change q/q consensus is 0.4%, down from 0.5% previously, and the unemployment rate is projected to fall to 5.5% from 5.6%.

Analysts have noted the anticipated drop in unemployment could mostly reflect employment gains exceeding population growth.

Westpac emphasized that lingering slack in the labor market should keep wage pressures subdued even with cost-of-living strains persisting. Taken together, the projections suggest a somewhat firmer labor market than what the RBNZ expected in its September Monetary Policy Statement.

For the Eurozone, the core CPI flash estimate y/y consensus is 2.5%, matching the previous 2.5%, while headline CPI flash estimate y/y is seen at 4.0% versus 2.5% before.

The ECB will scrutinize this week's figures as it weighs its next policy step at December's meeting. Headline inflation is expected to stay above 4.0% over the next few months, mostly because of higher energy prices.

Core inflation and food prices will get special attention from the Bank as it looks for second-round effects extending past energy, though the situation for now seems manageable.

The BoE is expected to raise rates by 25 bps at its meeting this week, which would mark the first increase since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Higher energy prices and their effect on inflation are a key reason for the anticipated move, with headline, core and services inflation all running elevated. Stronger-than-expected growth, firmer PMI readings and better employment data are also in the mix.

The bigger worry is that sustained high energy costs could spill into wages and broader pricing decisions. While hard proof of second-round inflation effects is still scarce, officials have cautioned against delaying a response. Wells Fargo analysts see another 25 bps hike in Q1 2027, lifting Bank Rate to 4.25%.

Canada's employment change consensus comes in at 14.5K against a prior -68.3K, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.5%.

That would come after September's unexpected 68K drop, driven mostly by losses in the public sector. Early hiring gauges indicate labor demand is firming, and the BoC's most recent survey points to still-positive employment expectations. Even so, uncertainty around trade stemming from U.S. tariffs keeps limiting companies' appetite for adding workers.

U.S. average hourly earnings m/m consensus is 0.3% versus 0.1% previously, and nonfarm employment change is expected at 63K against a prior 29K. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.

Stability in the labor market persists, with initial jobless claims still historically low and job openings broadly unchanged. Recent regional Fed surveys also suggest modest employment gains in both manufacturing and services.

Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% after September's 0.1% gain, putting annual wage growth at 2.9%. Restrained hiring and only modest labor supply growth should nevertheless keep wage pressures in check. On balance, the labor market is fairly well balanced, with scant evidence that wage growth is making a meaningful contribution to inflation pressure.