Why Crypto Is Tumbling and What Might Reverse the Slide

Bitcoin (BTC) slid to roughly $80,300 with more than $1 billion in leveraged wagers erased within a single day. A trio of worries is converging, and every one of them is anchored to either a date or an individual.

Unipcs, the trader who goes by “Bonk Guy” on X, contends these same catalysts could turn into buying cues after their dates have passed. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market's combined capitalization decreased 4.4%, landing at $2.77 trillion.

What Is Behind the Crypto Market's Sharp Slide?

1. A low is due right now, according to the 4-year cycle

Per CoinGecko, bitcoin reached its peak of roughly $126,080 on October 6, 2025. In earlier cycles, the bear-market trough arrived about a year after the peak.

The December 2017 high found its low 365 days later, and the November 2021 top bottomed out 378 days afterward. Taking that pattern forward puts the equivalent window in October 2026.

Benjamin Cowen had likewise called for an October low, only to concede in September that his prediction had missed. Still, plenty of traders who follow the cycle are waiting until the date has passed before they buy.

2. This Saturday brings the one-year mark of the 10/10 shock

CoinGecko data shows that a tariff shock on October 10, 2025 forced more than $19 billion in leveraged positions to unwind, touching over 1.6 million accounts.

Traders are bracing for a repeat. Thursday saw over $600 million in liquidations in a single hour, the largest one-hour figure in a month.

This time around, however, leverage appears more modest. An analysis of a repeat of 10/10 calculated that liquidations currently amount to roughly $248 million for every 1% decline. On 10/10 itself, that number stood near $2.2 billion.

3. AI is rekindling concerns about cryptography

Ethereum researcher Justin Drake cautioned that AI might enable attackers to derive private keys from public keys already visible from wallets. In the worst-case scenario, he said, this could occur within months.

Drake advised holders to shift funds to unused addresses instead of panicking. Glassnode reckons roughly 6.04 million BTC is already sitting behind public keys that are visible.

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's co-founder, added that mathematics accelerated by AI could undermine ECDSA, the signature protocol protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets. He, too, counselled calm.

“I don’t recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography.,” Vitalik wrote on X.

What Might Reverse the Crypto Selloff?

1. Q4 seasonal trends

According to Coinglass data, bitcoin has risen in eight of the 13 fourth quarters since 2013, posting a median gain of 26%.

Years after a peak have diverged from that tendency, however. In 2014 the fourth quarter dropped 16%, in 2018 it fell 42%, and in 2022 it declined 15%.

2. Cycle believers returning to the market

Traders who sat on the sidelines until that window passed could begin buying once the cycle-low period ends in mid-to-late October.

A number of analysts believe the low has already arrived. Bitcoin hit its bottom of $58,525 on June 30, and Alex Thorn of Galaxy pointed to a 50-week moving average signal in September.

3. 10/10 worries could fade if nothing goes wrong

Should October 10 come and go without incident, the risk premium attached to the anniversary may dissipate.

Macro forces could still determine what happens next. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.3%, US inflation data arrives on October 14, and the Fed convenes on October 27–28. Glassnode puts the next concentration of leveraged positions near $75,000.

It remains to be seen whether the cycle traders get the low they are waiting for. The debate about AI and cryptography, however, will probably outlast this dip, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum could be pushed to accelerate their security roadmaps.