JPMorgan revises forecast: Fed to hike in September and December
JPMorgan predicts Fed rate hikes in September and December; market had already priced in 86%.
11/09/2026 18:312 min read
Macro News
Inflation, employment, growth data and central bank decisions, and how they reprice risk across markets.
August Budget Gap Narrows to $167B, Far Below $404B Forecast
The August US budget deficit was $167 billion, well below the $404 billion consensus, after a near-record $432 billion shortfall the prior month.
11/09/2026 18:113 min read
Rate Hike Bets Hit 87% as Trump's Rate Strategy Falls Short
Traders see 86.9% chance of Fed rate hike next week, contradicting Trump's promises. Kevin Warsh has yet to cut rates since becoming chair.
11/09/2026 18:0015 min read
ECB's Lane warns energy cost persistence could curb spending
ECB's Lane warns sustained energy price increases may curb autumn consumption. Odds of consecutive ECB rate hikes are slightly over 50%.
11/09/2026 17:412 min read
Bitcoin Breaks $79,000 as Traders Look Past Inflation Surprise
Bitcoin rose nearly 2% to close to $79,000 on Friday, shrugging off data showing U.S. inflation accelerated in August.
11/09/2026 15:577 min read
UMich Sentiment Drops to 47.8 in September, Below Expectations
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for September came in at 47.8, below the 51.0 forecast.
11/09/2026 14:212 min read
Remembering 9/11: A personal reflection on loss and kindness
A personal account of 9/11 and a bus driver's kindness that brought hope.
11/09/2026 14:0113 min read
US CPI Data Sparks Initial Rate Hike Expectations, Then Markets Reverse Course
US CPI data initially boosted September rate hike odds above 90%, but markets reversed with stock futures rising and the dollar retreating.
11/09/2026 13:1312 min read
Bitcoin and gold drop after core CPI beats forecasts
Bitcoin and gold fell after August core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% forecast, raising Fed uncertainty.
11/09/2026 12:564 min read
August CPI holds at 3.4% annually, matching forecasts
August US CPI annual rate matched forecasts at 3.4%. Core CPI eased to 2.4%.
11/09/2026 12:436 min read
European markets wrap: Quiet session ahead of US CPI data
Markets were quiet ahead of US CPI data. UK GDP beat expectations. Oil fell 3% despite geopolitical tensions.
11/09/2026 11:519 min read
US CPI forecast distribution breakdown
US CPI forecast distribution shows consensus at 3.4% Y/Y and 0.2% core M/M. Only a soft core CPI may offer short-term relief.
11/09/2026 07:236 min read
UK economy expanded 0.4% in July, above expectations of no monthly growth
UK GDP rose 0.4% in July from June, beating forecasts for no change, as services led gains and annual growth reached 1.6%.
11/09/2026 06:125 min read
Jim Cramer: 30-Year Treasury Now the Dominant Market Force
Jim Cramer says the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.3% now drives stocks, overriding fundamentals.
11/09/2026 05:419 min read
Siegel Urges Fed to Hike Rates Next Week Despite Selloff Risk
Jeremy Siegel says the Fed must raise rates next week to maintain credibility, despite risk of a selloff.
11/09/2026 03:567 min read