6% Treasury Yields Are Back on the Table — Bitcoin Is Entering Uncharted Territory

Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin white paper was still roughly eight years away at that point. A veteran market strategist now anticipates a return to that zone.

Strategist Says 10-Year Yield Could Reach 6.07%

Rick Bensignor, who founded Bensignor Investment Strategies, said on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime that the 10-year yield could rise to 6.07%.

Such a move would take the yield from its current level of about 4.78%. He pointed to a long-running uptrend line and noted that a 200-week moving average highlighted the recent low around 4%.

Bensignor describes the historical range as broad: the 10-year hit 15.8% in the early 1980s and later fell to a record low of about 40 basis points.

That places the halfway point at 8.11%. He does not expect a return to that midpoint, though he regards 5.6% as a minimum upside objective. Bensignor's own first mortgage carried an interest rate above 7% in 1987.

His argument is that today's borrowers are not prepared for how much higher rates can go.

What Higher Yields Could Mean for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has yet to encounter a Treasury market like the current one. A higher yield environment usually steers investment toward safer assets that produce income and away from speculative positions. That weighs on Bitcoin's debasement trade narrative, which links BTC's price to worries about US debt.

That narrative was already under close scrutiny. US federal debt has topped $40 trillion, while BTC changes hands around $80,138, roughly 37% below its all-time high. If yields keep climbing and Bitcoin stays range-bound, the gap could widen, deepening the disconnect between debt fears and BTC's price.

A second view is that yields have more than one path higher. If inflation or fiscal stress drives rates up, Bitcoin's scarcity pitch may stay intact. Resilient growth could also lift yields while pulling money away from risk assets. The recent upheaval in bond markets is a reminder that a yield surge can quickly carry into other markets.

Bensignor's projected level does not amount to a near-term call. Even so, the 10-year keeps approaching ground that is new to Bitcoin. Traders will soon learn whether BTC acts as digital gold or as one more rate-sensitive risk asset.