A Heavy Week for Wall Street: Midterms, Jobs Data, Apple Earnings

The week ahead on Wall Street brings midterm elections, a payroll report, and an earnings update from Apple. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2% last week, closing out its worst month since March 2025.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided against raising rates last week, though two of its 12 voters preferred a hike. A robust jobs reading could increase the probability of a rate increase, heaping more pressure onto risk assets already under strain from questions over artificial intelligence (AI) investment.

Could Friday's Payroll Data Move Markets This Week?

Dow Jones polls economists who anticipate the Friday release of October nonfarm payrolls will indicate 55,000 new jobs. This monthly metric tracks US hiring that takes place beyond the agricultural sector.

Given the division within the Fed on rate increases, the payrolls number carries extra weight. The futures-based tool CME FedWatch estimated an 84% probability of a December rate rise ahead of the October meeting.

Apple is due to report its results following Monday's market close, with McDonald's and Qualcomm also publishing their figures in the coming days.

Do Midterms Face Off Against AI Spending Doubts and Oil Above $100?

According to CNBC, Democrats are projected to take the House on Tuesday, with the balance of power in the Senate still up in the air.

Horizon Investments' head of research and quantitative strategies, Mike Dickson, notes that which party controls Congress has historically had a limited impact on equity markets.

Shares tied to artificial intelligence saw an early boost last week after Anthropic publicly filed for an initial public offering (IPO).

That rally gave way to selling once Alphabet and Microsoft pointed to capital expenditure that fell short of projections. Amazon kept its forecast for full-year spending steady.

Crude oil is applying additional pressure following a gain of over 10% during October. Late Sunday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was close to $102, while the international benchmark Brent was near $112.

Separately, the unresolved outcome of Israel's election continues to keep Middle East risk a live factor for oil traders.

Japanese chipmaker Kioxia dropped roughly 14% on Monday. The company's price gains for flash memory decelerated to the mid-20% range in the previous quarter, down from 70%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average still managed an advance of nearly 2% in October, with funds rotating into healthcare and other defensive equities. This implies investors shifted their holdings rather than exiting the market.

The Friday payrolls data might test if stronger wagers on a rate increase broaden the shift away from technology stocks.