Al-Arabiya reports a US-Iran breakthrough could be announced this week, but the two sides remain divided over the order of concessions.
According to Al-Arabiya, Washington and Tehran are expected to declare a breakthrough in their negotiations within the coming days, as the delegations work to close the distance between them and secure concessions on both sides to stop tensions from escalating again.
The report arrives at an intriguing point in the calendar, with the US midterm elections approaching on November 3. Trump has every political reason to try to end the costly confrontation and to ease the burden of energy prices, which have become a major worry for the American public. A successful breakthrough would push oil prices down sharply, with markets expecting greater supply and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, the timing may give markets some hope of an imminent deal, but caution is warranted. Recent coverage has been far from positive, including Washington's suggestion that the MOAB bomb could be used.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said again over the weekend that Tehran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days is still on the table. That offer depends on Washington accepting Iran's terms, which include ending the blockade of Iranian ports, relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and stopping hostilities throughout the region. The two sides are said to remain at odds over those conditions and over the sequence in which concessions are made.
The core dispute is whether the strait should be reopened and US pressure lifted before any real movement on Iran's nuclear programme. Washington has insisted that nuclear activities in Iran must be dealt with, whereas Tehran wants maritime security and the removal of restrictions that hurt its economy to be the immediate priorities.
Over the weekend, Trump waived a number of Russian sanctions in a bid to bring energy prices down, but the oil market has been driven mainly by the crisis in the Middle East. With WTI crude back near the $100 level and discontent widespread, he could still strike a short-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade before the elections.
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