Crude oil slips after Trump waives Russia sanctions; geopolitical tensions sustain support

At the beginning of the week, crude oil prices fell after Trump waived a number of Russian sanctions and tariffs. This move was intended to ease fuel shortages and control prices without making concessions to Iran.

In parallel, Ukraine carried out a major drone strike on energy facilities near St. Petersburg, including an oil export terminal. This development undermines the chances of the proposed energy ceasefire and could sustain the elevated risk premium regardless of Trump's waiver.

The US-Iran conflict remains the primary bullish factor for oil. Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. Commercial shipping attacks persist, and Gulf crude exports saw a sharp decline last week, based on Kpler data as cited by Reuters.

Additionally, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis persists, targeting key infrastructure and disrupting oil supplies. Without de-escalation in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to stay supported.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

Crude oil broke above the 96.77 level and then retested it. Buyers are expected to step in near that level, with a defined risk below it, to keep aiming for the 110.00 resistance. Sellers, however, will look for the price to drop back below 96.77 to set up a move to the lower bound of the channel.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

A minor upward trendline defines the bullish momentum. Buyers will probably continue to rely on this trendline, with a defined risk below it, to push prices to new highs. Sellers are looking for a break lower to extend the pullback toward the lower bound of the channel.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

There is little more to add: buyers are likely to step in at current levels, with a defined risk below the trendline, to keep pushing to new highs. Sellers need a break below the recent lower low near 95.30 to allow new lows.

Upcoming Catalysts

Thursday brings the latest US jobless claims data, and Friday ends the week with the Flash US PMIs. Middle East developments will continue to be the focus.