Altcoins Bounce Back on Binance, but Season Index Tells Different Tale

Altcoins on Binance have regained ground, with 70% now trading above their 200-day moving average. A separate gauge measuring altcoin momentum has moved in the opposite direction.

On September 20, the Altcoin Season Index from Blockchaincenter dropped to 41. That figure is 34 points short of the threshold traditionally associated with an altcoin season.

Altcoin Market Cap Reclaims $800 Billion

The overall crypto market cap has advanced 3.7% during September, with a number of altcoins experiencing strong gains even in the face of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Total3 – an indicator that measures altcoin market cap minus Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) – reclaimed the $800 billion mark. It had not touched that level for over eight months.

The recovery pushed above the May high on a solid daily closing price. Binance data also indicated that 70% of altcoins were above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since October 2025.

For almost a year, these same altcoins had been trading 65% to 85% beneath the 200-day average. In contrast, Bitcoin has moved in a band between $75,600 and $82,000.

Ash Crypto also highlighted a bullish setup that excludes the top 10 crypto assets.

The last time the Altcoin market broke out of a major monthly downtrend, it went parabolic within 9 months.

We’re seeing a very similar setup again.

If history repeats, this could be the early stage of another Altcoin season.

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) September 17, 2026

Why the Two Signals Point in Opposite Directions

A better price structure does not automatically indicate that altcoins are beating Bitcoin in performance. The Altcoin Season Index tracks how many of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day window.

At a reading of 41, less than 50% of those coins have surpassed Bitcoin during that period. The index hit a peak of about 67 in August and has declined in relative strength since.

Bitcoin dominance reinforces this outlook. It stood at 59.34% on September 20, a rise of 0.5% over three days.

Essentially, altcoins have gained value in dollar terms but have not demonstrated widespread outperformance relative to Bitcoin.

However, one BTC-denominated metric hints at a potential change. According to Ash Crypto, the ETH/BTC ratio has been around 0.03238 and recently challenged a downtrend that has persisted since 2021.

This breakout is still fresh, and the ratio is far below its 2021 high. As such, it offers an early indicator rather than definitive proof of a widespread altcoin rotation.

Darkfost also warned that the market's improving structure might rapidly turn around.

“But be careful, this kind of development can shift quickly, so caution remains warranted,” analyst Darkfost said.

To confirm a broader rotation via the Altcoin Season Index, altcoins must sustain their outperformance against Bitcoin over the 90-day measurement window.