Asia calendar: China official PMIs due on 31 August 2026

A busy data schedule is ahead, with Chinese PMI data as the main focus.

Renewed hostility sets the stage for the session ahead:

• Two Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz were struck by U.S. forces

The National Bureau of Statistics will release its official August Purchasing Managers' Indices on Monday at 9:30am Beijing time (01:30 GMT/2130 US Eastern time Sunday). The manufacturing figure will indicate whether the sharp contraction in July has begun to ease.

According to a Reuters poll of 17 economists, the consensus for the official manufacturing PMI is 49.6, up from July's 49.2 but still below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. July's reading missed the 49.9 forecast and fell 1.1 points from June's 50.3, indicating broad weakness across companies of all sizes rather than stress in one particular segment.

Soft domestic demand and a prolonged property market downturn continue to weigh on the economy. These factors kept second-quarter GDP growth at 4.3%, below the lower bound of Beijing's 4.5-5% annual target. Some of that weakness has been offset by resilient manufacturing and exports, supported by a global surge in AI infrastructure investment that boosts demand for Chinese high-tech products. However, the broader trade environment, including the impact of the Middle East conflict, remains uncertain.

A reading at or above the 49.6 consensus would reinforce the notion that factory activity is stabilizing. A lower figure would reignite fears that China's slowdown is spreading from property to the broader manufacturing sector.

The NBS will also release the non-manufacturing PMI, which tracks services and construction. That index fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June. A composite output index combining both sectors will also be published.