MUFG predicts ECB rate rise, flags euro downside
MUFG sees ECB hike this week, highlights euro downside risk from Lagarde's comments, German elections, and gas prices.
MUFG sees ECB hike this week, highlights euro downside risk from Lagarde's comments, German elections, and gas prices.
Eurozone Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.6% q/q on trade, with annual growth at 1.2%, but underlying domestic demand remained soft.
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index rose to 5.1 in September, its highest since February 2022.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.6% m/m in July, and EU sales declined 0.4%. Year on year, euro area rose 0.6% and EU rose 1.0%.
Eurozone PMIs for August held steady, with growth matching July's pace and price pressures remaining elevated.
Bond yields in major economies hit multi-year highs, signalling a shift to higher-for-longer interest rates amid persistent inflation and fiscal deficits.
ECB's Makhlouf says the upcoming rate decision will not surprise markets, and policy only becomes restrictive above 2.75%. He also indicates further hikes may…
ECB's Nagel said the global economy remains on a growth trajectory despite Middle East tensions and welcomed coordinated JPY intervention.
Eurozone annual inflation rose to 3.3% in August, driven by energy prices, while core inflation eased to 2.4%.
Eurozone August CPI meets forecast at 3.3% y/y; core inflation eases more than expected to 2.4%. Energy costs jump 14.3%.
Eurozone August headline inflation expected to rise to 3.3%, core steady at 2.5%. ECB seen hiking rates.
Germany's preliminary August CPI rose 2.9% y/y, below 3.0% forecast; HICP also missed at 2.9% vs 3.1% expected.
August CPI in key German states rose, pointing to a national print near 2.9-3.0%, reinforcing ECB rate hike expectations.
Germany's state-level CPI data due today; headline inflation expected to rise to 3.0%.
ECB's Isabel Schnabel argued at Jackson Hole that the euro should be issued on a blockchain, and stablecoins cannot replace central bank money for settlement.