AUDUSD slides over 1% after soft Australia jobs; key levels in focus

Australia released a weaker-than-expected September employment report, providing the Reserve Bank with greater leeway to hold steady. The data contributed to a decline in AUDUSD. Subsequent technical breakdowns have strengthened the bearish stance.

Employment declined, though the breakdown showed mixed results.

• The seasonally adjusted data showed employment dropping by 39,300, versus forecasts of a 20,000 rise.

• The previous month's gain was revised down to 29,300 from 39,500.

• The unemployment rate came in at 4.7%, exceeding the 4.6% forecast. August's figure was also revised to 4.7%, meaning September's rate was unchanged when rounded.

• Full-time jobs increased by 34,400, while part-time positions dropped 73,700.

• The participation rate declined to 66.8% from 67.0%.

• Underemployment edged up to 6.3% from 6.2%.

• Hours worked inched up 0.1%.

• The ratio of employed people to the population dropped 0.3 percentage points to 63.6%.

The drop in participation warrants attention, as fewer people are either employed or seeking jobs, meaning the unemployment rate understates the employment softness. The weaker employment-to-population ratio confirmed this subdued view.

Some positive elements existed: full-time employment grew, and hours worked rose slightly. The trend-based data, which smooth out volatility, indicated a 15,700 increase in employment, with the jobless rate steady at 4.6%.

In my view, the report affords the RBA more scope to wait, but the mixed details mean a single weak data point does not decide the policy path.

Sellers have gained the upper hand after support levels were breached.

For market participants, the economic data served as the trigger, while technical levels clarify the bias and risk.

The fall beneath the 0.69620–0.69778 swing zone reinforced the bearish inclination. A further drop below the 0.69056–0.69205 area gave sellers another win, aided by strong PPI and retail sales reports.

That lower region now serves as the immediate risk-defining zone.

If price remains below 0.69056–0.69205, sellers retain control. A move back into that zone would require traders to watch for waning bearish momentum. A sustained break above 0.69205 would give buyers their own triumph.

Any rebound would then focus on the previously breached 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6950. Bulls would need to recapture that level to further enhance the technical outlook.

The next downside targets include a technical floor and the midpoint.

To the downside, the next major support lies in the 0.68321–0.68632 range.

Inside that range is the 50% midpoint of the rally from the November 21, 2025 trough, at 0.68488.

The confluence of the previous floor and the midpoint makes this zone significant. Sellers must first push below the upper boundary at 0.68632 to target the midpoint, then the lower boundary at 0.68321.

A key trading principle: identify what would alter your perspective.

A negative headline can drive a currency downward. To sustain the decline, sellers need to defend the breached support and break through subsequent bearish targets.

Sellers are now in command. Their task is to hold price beneath the shattered swing zone and build on this edge.

Can they sustain the momentum toward 0.68488? As long as price stays under resistance, that remains the next goal. A recapture of the lost levels would begin to shift the bearish outlook.